OSCAR RACE 2007

commentary by Nathaniel R

days until OSCAR NIGHT

 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role


Final NOMINATION Predictions
5/5 but it was the most settled
Final WINNER Predictions Javier Bardem
. (spoiler if there is one: there isn't)
My Preference
I might say Affleck (except he's a lead) so give me Bardem
Readers Choice Javier Bardem won easily (full results) for No Country For Old Men
My Personal Ballot
3/5 but it would be 4/5 if I believed that Affleck was a supporting actor in a film which he is unarguably a lead

(number of films approximate)

Casey Affleck
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem
No Country For Old Men
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Charlie Wilson’s War
Hal Holbrook
Into the Wild

Tom Wilkinson
Michael Clayton
22 Films
1st nomination!
34 Films
2nd nomination
39 Films
2nd nomination / 1 win
so many films
1st nomination!
too many baguettes, even more films
2nd nomination
Other Awards:
a few critics orgs
Release: Sept 21st
Box Office: $3
Role: The Coward Robert Ford
Other Awards:
Everything (but a few critics orgs)
Release: Nov 9th
Box Office: $58
Role: Anton Chigurh, is he a drug kinpin, a serial killer, or just "death" in human form
Other Awards:
None
Release: Dec 21st
Box Office: $65
Role: Gus Avrakotos, a maverick CIA Agent
Other Awards:
None
Release: Sept 21st
Box Office: $18
Role: A lonely widower who wants to adopt McCandles
Other Awards:
None
Release: Oct 5th
Box Office: $45
Role: A mentally unstable corporate defense lawyer
How'd They Get Nominated?
55% Performance. Detailed and unique
20%
The role, it's got meat on its bones even if Ford is a little scrawny. Oscar likes a lead in supporting
9% Gone Baby Gone and an all around good year for the Affleck clan (Ben, Casey, Matt, Jen)
7% Critical love
5% The general feeling that he always had this in him --it's a personal breakthrough
4% Fans of this film are passionate
35% The role, arguably America's favorite villain since Hannibal Lecter.
29%
Performance. Stunning. Minimalist. Super Scary.
14% He's crucial to the critical zeitgeist film and the precursors went hogwild for him
9% "Friendo"
6% Josh Brolin and Tommy Lee Jones
5% über charismatic on the campaign trail
2%
Before Night Falls and the snub from The Sea Inside
56% Role & Performance: loud and scene stealing type of part he's known for and that Oscar embraces --especially if the film otherwise feels a little blah (see also: Renée in Cold Mountain and many others)
26%
He's Philip Seymour Hoffman
9% Before the Devil Knows You're Dead and The Savages
6%
December release and few competitors had any traction

3% Capote
27% Performance is moving and perfectly pitched. If someone makes people cry ~voila, Oscar traction
26%
Career tribute. He's been working forever and had never been nominated (see also: Ruby Dee)
22%
The role is well placed in the narrative, sympathetic and a crucial piece of the film
19% ...that a lot of people really loved.
6% Precursors (mostly) rallied
42% Role was showcased and Oscar loves a good looney tunes part. His shit-talking monologue kicks things off to an eery and sober start...
33%
and the showy performance keeps on holding and even surprising you...
11% especially once you see him with all those baguettes in that razor sharp scene with Clooney in the alley
10% Love for the film
3% Precursor support
1% In the Bedroom
I Asked Readers Which Film Clip Oscar Should Show?

'listing his similarities to jesse james'
arkaan

"people underestimate me"
anonymous

'trying to feel what it's like being Jesse, one finger bent over with sunlight'
js

"do you see me?"
glenn

'strangling the cop'
brodie

"friendo"
john

'bugging the bottle'
anonymous
"I could be... your grandfather"
whip-smart

'the baguettes'
joe

'pumping up the music from the UNorth commercial and yelling at everyone on the conference call'
Katey

Should Win / Will Win
Since I'm not down with giving Oscars to lead players I can't get behind an Affleck vote (even though I love the performance) so the next logical choice is Javier Bardem who is completely locked up for the win already.
Who Got Robbed?
I could've done without the easy nomination for Hoffman who does his usual grandstanding here (his other two performances this year are so much worthier of attention) and I'm still perplexed that Max von Sydow's exquisite heartbreaking work in Diving Bell and Butterfly couldn't get any sort of traction this awards season. Other glorified cameos did: Redgrave's (Atonement) or Dee's (American Gangster) and von Sydow's work was stronger. My list is different, but then Affleck is not a supporting actor. He's the protagonist of his movie, and a terrific one --I've nominated him in lead where he belongs.
Statistics / Trivia
AFFLECK
BARDEM
HOFFMAN
HOLBROOK
WILKINSON
Age: 32
Born in: Massachussetts
Height: 5' 9"
Age: 38
Born in: Canary Islands
Height: 6'
Age: 40
Born in: New York
Height: 5' 9"
Age: 83
Born in: Ohio
Height: 6' 1"
Age: 59
Born in: Leeds
Height: 6' 1"

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