Key: green (lock) yellow (solid bets) red (longer shots) blue (doubtful but possible)
| Best
Supporting Actor- final
predictions |
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01/20
I won't be terribly surprised if the SAG lineup
repeats (minus Hoffman plus Jones) but it does seem to have settled
on these five men Apart from Hoffman's easy role (he could perform this one in his sleep), they're all strong and worthy nominees so this is superior to last year's Oscar list. If there's an upset it's probably coming from Travolta or Jones. But an upset is looking less and less likely by the minute. |
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| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
Javier
Bardem |
Hal
Holbrook Into the Wild never nominated prev: 2,4,2,4,4,12,--,-- |
Tom
Wilkinson Michael Clayton 1 nomination prev: 5,3,3,2,2,2,3,1 |
Casey
Affleck Assassination of Jesse James never nominated prev: 4,6,8,8,7,7,9,7 |
Phillip
Seymour Hoffman Charlie Wilson’s War 1 nom / 1 win prev: 3,2,4,3,5,11,14,14 |
| Wins:NYFCC,
OFCS, DC, BOSTON, CHICAGO, NYFCO, BFCA Noms: SAG, GG |
Wins:
-- Noms: SAG, BFCA |
Wins:
-- Noms: SAG, GG, BFCA |
Wins:
NFCS, SF Noms: SAG, GG, BFCA |
Wins:
-- Noms: GG, BFCA |
His
death dealer is thrilling audiences. He's headed for the win unless
one of the "career honors" competitors can find a sentiment
window (should they manage nods) |
This
enduring actor is in a great position. By honoring him they honor
the film (which I think they'll love) and his entire career. Plus
he gives the film it's most indelible emotional beat |
A
plum and and baity role (Oscar loves a nutjob) in a film that's easy
to respect. Oscar prefers massive roles in supporting categories and
he's the catalyst for a good bulk of the drama |
If
Oscar listens to the critics community (the only ones who saw it),
this well handled lead role will be your annual Egregious Category
Fraud nominee. Really fine work |
Now
entering the default nominee portion of his career (in theory... he's
only been nominated once. But you know more are coming). A crowd pleasing
role, too |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
Tommy
Lee Jones No Country For Old Men 2 noms / 1 win prev: 7,9,14,15,19,23,--,-- |
John
Travolta Hairspray 2 nominations prev: 6,5,7,9,17,--,--,-- |
Paul
Dano There Will Be Blood never nominated prev: 8,8,6,5,3,3,5,3 |
Max
Von Sydow The Diving Bell and Butterfly 1 nom prev: 9,7,5,6,8,20,--,-- |
Albert
Finney Before the Devil Knows You're Dead 5 nominations 10, 10, 9,7,11,14,--,-- |
| Wins:
-- Noms: SAG |
Wins:
-- Noms: GG |
Wins:
-- Noms: -- |
Wins:
-- Noms: -- |
|
|
If
Oscar goes into double digit nominations mode, it'll be for either
No Country or Atonement. Bonus: Respect from In
the Valley of Elah |
Well
loved by Hollywood power people (Oprah, the scientologists, etcetera)
in a showy role with a great FYC campaign. Oscar often likes to have
a a spot of fun in the supporting categories. |
If
Oscar drops the ageism, they might see the baitiness in his war with
Daniel Day-Lewis. Bonus: Little Miss Sunshine goodwill |
If
Oscar gets respectful, there's no finer place than here. A nod to
a fine film, an important figure in cinema and one last indirect bow
to Bergman. But traction never happened :( |
If
Oscar gets sentimental and tough and does so simultaneously
(yes, we're in longshot realm) they could honor this multiple loser
for a harsh film |
|
Vote
Siphoners -no traction to
speak of but surely they'll land on a ballot here or there other
honors off
the chart: Dan
Futterman A Mighty Heart prev: 21,23,25, --,--,11Omar
MetwalleyRendition prev:
20,21,14,24,23, 23 Mark Ruffalo Reservation Road never nominated
prev:22, --,--,5,2, 2
Eddie Redmayne (never nominated) Savage Grace prev:
25, Ciarin Hinds (never nominated) Margot at the Wedding
prev: 13, Jim Broadbent (1 win) And When Did You Last See
Your Father?
prev:
17
Christopher Walken ( noms / 1 win) Hairspray prev:
22, 21,Heath Ledger (1 nomination) I'm Not There 20,--Gordon
Pinsent (never nominated) Away From Her prev:
19,15,-- (another co-lead), Jack
Black (never nominated) Margot at the Wedding 21,25,-Benicio
Del Toro Things We Lost in the Fire
2 noms / 1 win
prev: 8,7,4 Gerard Butler
(never nominated) P.S. I Love You 22,
--,--, Clive Owen The Golden Age (1 nom) prev: --,13,8
Geoffrey Rush (noms / 1 win) The Golden Age prev:22,
--,--,11, Chiwetel Ejiofor (never nominated) American Gangster
prev: 21,--,21,24, Dustin Hoffman Mr.
Magorium's...prev: 22,13,13,10,10 Sam Elliott The Golden
Compass 25,24,--,--,--Alan
Rickman Sweeney Toddprev: 10,10,9,9,8,9
Daniel CraigThe Golden Compass
prev:
19,19,16, 16,16,16 Bruno Ganz (never nominated) Youth Without
Youth prev: 23,20,18,17,19,18 Alan
Arkin Rendition 3 noms/ 1 win prev: 24,24,23,18,11,
6 Michael Murphy (never nominated)Away From Her prev:
25,--,--,--17,20 |
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history
of predictions |
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Jan
9th -20th: Affleck, Bardem, Holbrook, Hoffman,
Wilkinson 12/15 If the first wave of precursors is to be trusted, this field is now at a very narrow 6 for 5 spots. Whenever it's that close virtually anyone is in danger of getting the boot. This week, I'm assuming that the Globe love for John Travolta will also be echoed by the star loving SAG nominating committe. Travolta is hardly unloved by actors and though his reviews were divisive many readers have insightfully pointed out that AMPAS probably is closer to the mainstream when it comes to knowledge and devotion to John Waters and previous Edna incarnations. They might dig Travolta's comedy antics as much as the public did. Which is to say: a lot. While Hal Holbrook is faring the worst of the six men in terms of precursors, I'm assuming that AMPAS will enjoy his film (Into the Wild) far more than the Globe voters did. The movie is less snappy than the Globes like it but Oscar... I could see them digging. I may be wrong. And it might be very foolish to have Casey Affleck in 6th place but, though I love the performance and The Assassination of Jesse James, I suspect its one of those movies that's not going to connect with Oscar voters. I continue to be bewildered by the lack of traction for Max von Sydow, who was my favorite part of The Diving Bell and Butterfly (my interview) But if the movie continues to gather Oscar steam, I hold out hope that he will enter the fray. Better late than never. The easiest drop for me would be Phillip Seymour Hoffman since his work in Charlie Wilson's War is the least of his three performances this year but for numerous reasons he seems to have entered that automatic respect phase of his career --making Oscar traction a much simpler task for him than for his competitors. discuss on the blog (all new commentary below) |
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