Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Final NOMINATION Predictions 5/5 I'm so pleased with myself
Final WINNER Prediction Tilda Swinton (spoiler if there is one: Ruby Dee). But this is DEFINITELY the year's most exciting race. There hasn't been a clear frontrunner and the precursors have gone every which way. That always makes it more exciting.
My Preference Tilda Swinton --easiest decision in any of the acting races. Just fantastic
Readers Choice Tilda Swinton just barely manages a win (full results) for her work in Michael Clayton. Cate Blanchett is a very close second
My Personal Ballot 2/5 similar. But I love Saoirse too.

(number of films approximate. hard to add since IMDB includes short films and tv work in filmographies)

 

Cate Blanchett I'm Not There	Ruby Dee American Gangster	Saoirse Ronan Atonement	Amy Ryan Gone Baby Gone	Tilda Swinton Michael Clayton
4,803 Films 5 noms / 1 win	too many to count 1st nomination!	3 Films 1st nomination!	14 Films 1st nomination!	39 Films 1st nomination!
Other Awards: NSFC, GG, Venice, critics orgs Release: Nov 21st Box Office: $3 Role: Bob Dylan proxy "Jude"	Other Awards: SAG Release: Nov 2nd Box Office: $130 Role: the mother of a gangster	Other Awards: none Release: Dec 7th Box Office: $45 Role: a precocious girl who dooms two lovers	Other Awards: OFCS, NBR, BFCA, NYFCC, LAFCA, critics orgs Release: Oct 19th Box Office: $20 Role: a negligent junkie mother with a missing child	Other Awards: BAFTA Release: Oct 5th Box Office: $46 Role: an amoral corporate lawyer in way over her head
How'd They Get Nominated?
35% Stunt casting & the role itself bound to get attention no matter how the quality went 35% Performance --the quality was there: funny, inspired, sly 18% She's Cate Blanchett -default nominee 9% Oscar loves a gender bender 3% Insane festival raves marked her as early frontrunner	32% Sentiment. She's never been nominated and it's a way to honor both her and Ossie Davis, two legends 30% The slap. Wake up calls & comeuppances hold great drama 18% Performance: a standout in big cast 12% film got off to a strong Oscar start... she survived its decline in weak field 8% Role. Oscar loves the moms of leads	42% Performance: a standout in big cast 22% The role. She's actually the main character --even if she's only in a third of the film ... and its a meaty role 13% Showcased in a Best Picture nominee 11% Oscar loves bad seed children 8% Vanessa Redgrave 3% Romola Garai 1% In demand in Hollywood	48% Performance: big, visible and actorly 21% Role. Lots of scenery to chew on. Monster mothers are an Oscar archetype 12% Deglam power. Really dives in to the ugliness of the role 12% Critics really rallied to get her traction early in the season 7% Fresh blood. A breakthrough year for her, why not honor it?	43% Performance: puts an inspired unique spin on things 20% Showcased in Best Picture nominee 17% Role. Villains provide scenery to chew 9% minor case of deglam. Clothes that don't fit (for a fashion icon no less!) weight gain, pit stains 6% Artistic cachet 4% Devoted fanbase 1% The Deep End
I Asked Readers Which Film Clip Oscar Should Show?
'press conference' mr ripley	"she will leave you... I will leave you" amir 'SLAP!!!' mr ripley	'telling Lola about Robbie' anonymous "You saved my life. I will be forever grateful" leo 'reading the letter' anonymous	'getting Casey Affleck to watch her kid at the end' sam "I just want my daughter back!" anonymous	"You don't want the money" sam 'any of the rehearsals' anonymous "10... 10 million?" john sweat stains...PLEASE! anonymous
Should Win / Will Win
Should Win: Tilda Swinton, hands down. She takes a role that could have read as caricature of misogynistic or any number of problems and she fashions a mesmerizing character study out of it. It's not even something I have to mull over. She's head and shoulders up top. She's like an entire brilliant movie inside another very good movie. Will Win: Of the four acting categories this one is the most volatile. Blanchett, Ryan and Dee have all won awards. History would seem to favor Blanchett (they love the biopics) but given that she just won and many people have scratched their heads over that double nomination this year, I think they might let sentiment rule and thank Ruby Dee for her long career.
Who Got Robbed?
In terms of the precursors the chief snub is Catherine Keener in Into the Wild. She's an actress I always enjoy but I didn't mind so much her exclusion this year. That particular performance is lovely but more than that? Odder to me is the lack of traction for the endearing women in Best Picture nominees. That's usually a surefire way to get traction so what happened (or why didn't it happen?) to Kelly Macdonald in No Country For Old Men and Jennifer Garner in Juno. I knew my list wouldn't be close to this one but I think this is a pretty good Oscar lineup... in an odd Best Supporting Actress year.

Last Year's Race