OSCAR RACE 2007
commentary
by Nathaniel R
days
until OSCAR NIGHT
Key: green (lock) yellow (solid bets) red (longer shots) blue (doubtful but possible)
| Best
Supporting Actress -
final predictions |
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01/20
I'm sticking with this. Though honestly I suspect any combo
that involves Blanchett and Ryan (from the top 8 feels just as plausible
as any other) I won't be surprised if Garner or Macdonald
(who have had no precursor support anywhere) or even both show up
and knock out Dee and Ronan... But I can't quite
predict it. I would think Saoirse was safe given the prominence of
the role and the film being so fresh in mind but for that troubling
SAG snub. And SAG likes young actresses even more than Oscar does.
So curious... Barring shock upsets you can expect to see Blanchett, Ryan, and Swinton on the red carpet (should the WGA strike not remove carpets from our world this February *sniffle*). Little Saoirse Ronan is probably in for spot #4 (hence the 1/2 comment) BUT there are considerable vulnerabilities there. She's got internal competition in her own film (hello legendary Vanessa Redgrave) and she's quite a little devil.... in the film, he hastens to add. Many people want to smack her across the face after watching Atonement and that's not always the best way to a nomination. Unless you're playing the Oscar favorite "monster mom" role (hello Amy Ryan). So
presuming Saorsie squeaks in, there's still a total nightmare of an
open spot for predictors. This makes things exciting but also hard
to read. Redgrave could make it on her reputation
and as Atonement's big talking point. Juno keeps
rising which suggests that Garner could appear but
why was there no SAG love for the ensemble cast? MacDonald
could ride that No Country glory all the way in but why no
precursors whatsoever? If Lumet and Before the Devil manage
director/screenplay nods it means people are watching that screener
which means there's an extreme longshot chance for Tomei.
Speaking of extreme longshots: Leigh is still hanging
around the edge of the top ten. So I'm throwing up my hands and going
with a career appreciation nod for Ruby Dee since
the actors seem to like American Gangster. But SAG also liked
the quiet conscience of Catherine Keener in Into
the Wild. Maybe Oscar will too? |
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| 1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
Cate
Blanchett I'm Not There 3 noms/ 1 win prev: 1,1,1,1,1,1,2,4 |
Amy
Ryan Gone Baby Gone never nom'ed 2,2,8,7,5,14,--,-- |
Tilda
Swinton Michael Clayton never nom'ed prev: 3,4,3,3,4,6,6,15 |
Ruby
Dee American Gangster never nom'ed prev: 5,6,5,6,--,--,--,-- |
Saoirse
Ronan Atonement never nom'ed prev: 4,3,2,2,2,4,17,-- |
Wins:
NSFC, NYFCO, CHICAGO, Venice (*lead) GG Noms: SAG, BFCA, SPIRIT |
Wins:
OFCS, NBR, SF, NYFCC, LAFCA, BOSTON, DC, BFCA Noms: GG, SAG |
Wins:
-- Noms: SAG, GG, BFCA |
Wins:
-- Noms: SAG |
Wins:
-- Noms: GG, BFCA (Young Actress) |
The
Streep of the Aughts and even if they don't like this film, the stunt
casting and the mimicry will win them over for sure |
Emerged
as the prime "critic's choice" candidate for her loud and
showy work as a monster mom (one of Oscar's favorite SA roles) |
A
unique and enduring celebrity with numerous highbrow acolytes. Plus,
she's superb in a probable Best Picture nominee. That can't hurt. |
If
Oscar gets sentimental, there's a lot worse places they could go for
one of those "career honors" prizes. Her last scene has
sting |
The
catalyst for Atonement's wrenching drama, and a pro already.
Only vulnerability might be that she doesn't downplay the unlikeability
(Oscar likes to like) |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
| Catherine
Keener Into the Wild 2 noms prev: 7,11, 13,14,19, --,--,--S |
Kelly
Macdonald No Country For Old Men never nominated prev: 6,5,4,4,11,--,--,-- |
Jennifer
Garner Juno never nominated 8,10, 12,12,10,12,--,- |
Vanessa
Redgrave Atonement many noms /1 win prev: 9,7,6,5,3,3,11,5 |
Jennifer
Jason Leigh Margot at the Wedding (never nomin'ed) prev: 10,8,7,9,6,2,1,2 |
Wins:
-- Noms: BFCA, SAG |
Wins:
-- Noms:-- |
Wins:
-- Noms: BFCA |
Wins:
-- Noms: BFCA |
Wins:
-- Noms: SPIRIT |
I
need to learn to stop under estimating her awards pull. This fine
character actress has become a regular. Can she make it again? |
Shares
one of the scenes that seal No Country's greatness with the
Supporting Actor frontrunner. More probable than people think....
|
If
Oscar is feeling welcoming (to the whole Affleck clan in fact --Jesse
James, Gone Baby Gone, and Garner herself), she does ably handle
a neat character shift |
If
Oscar is feeling worshipful, there's a lot worse places they could
go for one of those "you are the greatest" acknowledgements.
She closes the film. |
If
Oscar is feeling guilty, there's few performers as consensus deemed
overdue for their first Oscar nomination. She surprises with warmth
in the film. |
other
honors |
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previous
predictions |
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Jan
9th-20th: Blanchett, Dee, Ronan, Ryan, Swinton 12/16 After the first wave of precursors the supporting actress race, formerly the most confusing, has cleared up considerably. In all likelihood we'll see Blanchett (baitiest role), Ryan (the critical pet and an Oscar favorite archetype: the monster mom), Ronan (the kid... and this is the category that loves them), and Swinton (the overdue) I'm
convinced though that the fifth slot is still completely up for grabs.
For the fifth spot you might get a "coaster" (thanks, Lulu), those candidates who may or may not be worthy --doesn't matter --but could ride in on a well liked picture (Kelly MacDonald, Jennifer Garner, Marisa Tomei, Catherine Keener) or you might get a "career honors" slot --one of the enduring stars that Oscar might just want to say thank you to for disparate reasons (Jennifer Jason Leigh, Vanessa Redgrave, Ruby Dee, Julia Roberts) Which is all a long way of saying: The fifth spot will be hard won between eight women. But maybe the SAG nominations will narrow the field further. ...discuss the Predictions on the blog |
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Vote
Siphoners -no
traction but will be on a ballot here or there
