OSCAR RACE 2007
commentary
by Nathaniel
R
days since OSCAR NIGHT!
Oscar February 24th, 2008
Previous Articles
I Survived Live Blogging the Oscars
Part 1 -Arrivals / Part 2 -First Half of Show/ Part 3 -Second Half
My Final Predictions
I knew No Country would kill. 100% correct in the big eight categories
Symposium -Talking 'bout the Nominations
With six fine film writers and special guests
"Oscar Hangover"
It began with a hangover. Don't judge. Last night was Oscar night, who didn't have one too many? Something had to keep me going through the most conservative fashion show I can recall ever seeing on Hollywood's High Holy Night. The theme was either 'risk free" or they were all wearing black in mourning for Heath Ledger. But if so, I think it a poor tribute. He would have liked a spot of color. I mean, you saw the socks he wore to the Berlin Festival last year, right? You saw Michelle Williams dress on Brokeback night. This was not a conservative star and color is good. So, I frantically typed for 5 hours straight. What's wrong with me? I can't win an award for doing this. No shiny gold men for me. Why these enormous tasks I set myself? The hangover proved short lived and I trotted off to the other job... running a little late due to things like ironing, trying to find my keys, obsessing about the color of Tilda Swinton's eyes; you know ...daily routines.
READ THE REST ...
.... ............OSCAR THE MORNING AFTER
WINNERS
bolded in red
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PIC prediction: |
DIR prediction: |
ACTOR prediction: |
ACTRESS
prediction: |
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ceremony |
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Bardem Affleck prediction: |
Swinton Blanchett prediction: |
Juno Lars
and Real Girl prediction: |
No Country For Old Men Atonement prediction: |
post
ceremony Whichever way Supporting Actress goes, by far the most confusing of the big eight categories, no one should claim surprise. The precursors could never agree. That's always a welcome and fun development, as it keeps a competition competitive if you'll forgive the redundancy. I'm guessing Swinton not because I love the performance most (but I do by a lot), but because Michael Clayton needs to win something and in a competitive field, why wouldn't a picture that needs a win give her a boost? That said I think Ruby Dee is just as likely but you have to choose someone to guess with. In tight races like this one, I always long for a tie --just so that Barbra Streisand and Katharine Hepburn don't hold that particular record all to themselves for all eternity. |
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Assassination prediction: |
Art
Direction American
Gangster prediction: |
Golden
Age Across
the Universe prediction: |
Editing Into
the Wild prediction: |
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ceremony I'm rooting for Jack Fisk to pull off the win in Art Direction for There Will Be Blood but I'm not at all certain he will since he's up against showier (Sweeney Todd) and prettier (Atonement). We'll see. I'm crossing my fingers. Costume Design seems an easy get for Atonement. The green dress seals the deal and they've probably rewarded Atwood (Sweeney Todd) enough in the past. Editing is where I'm guessing they'll draw the line at four statues being too many for the Coen Bros to carry home personally. Let's say Bourne Ultimatum there. |
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Atonement 3:10
to Yuma prediction: |
FOREIGN Mongol prediction: |
SOUND
MIXING 3:10
to Yuma prediction: |
SONG "So
Close" prediction: |
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ceremony Sound Mixing is improbably a very exciting race. The sound team of the Transformers (Russell and O'Connell) have been up a bajillion times and always lost. Did the media coverage (far more than usual for the sound race) finally convince Oscar to give them a career tribute? My guess is it could go any which of three ways: Bourne Ultimatum, Transformers, or No Country. I'm going to guess that the drought will finally end (just barely) for the Susan Lucci of the Oscars. |
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prediction: |
La
Vie En Rose prediction: |
Bourne
Ultimatum prediction: |
ANIMATED
prediction: |
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ceremony The night's biggest shock has to be the visual effects win for The Golden Compass. It's the first time I can recall when a flop has won this prize. It was my favorite of the nominees --though not the best of the year (that'd be the unnominated Sunshine) so good show. I'm also thrilled to finally see an actor's physical transformation (La Vie En Rose) rewarded here rather than passed off as the actor's accomplishment. That isn't common. Usually they just reward the actor. In this case they did both but you can't win them all. Or, uh, in this case you can. ;) pre ceremony Giant F***ing Robots can't lose in visual effects. Piaf can't lose in makeup (can she? I guess it's a shock that La Vie En Rose was nominated to begin with since the academy usually likes to pretend that beautiful actress transforming their hairlines and skin tone and everything is the power of the actress herself), and the rat can't lose in the cartoon race. The only toss up here is the other sound category. I'm guessing Bourne Ultimatum just because I doubting that No Country will hold sweeping power love from enough AMPAS members. |
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Peter & The Wolf I
Met the Walrus prediction: |
Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets) At
Night prediction: |
Freeheld prediction: accuracy
of my nom predictions: |
Documentary
Feature No
End in Sight prediction: accuracy
of my nom predictions: |
post
ceremony see you next year. Or tomorrow if you like to talk about movies all year round.
And that's the end! (your thoughts welcome @ the blog) May all of your favorites win on Oscar night... unless your favorite is not Julie Christie! Peace,
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previously
Golden
Globe winners and blog
discussion
new my top ten list and the
film bitch awards have begun
"IT'S A GUSHER" -the year in review
new
podcast (Marisa Tomei & SAG Nomination
Discussion)
worst of the year & golden
globes
