Awards
Page Index
* OSCAR coverage here
'08 SAG
Nominations
by
Nathaniel R
OSCAR
PREDICTIONS / GOLDEN
GLOBE PAGE
I LIVE BLOGGED THESE AWARDS RIGHT HERE
The only award I predicted incorrectly was "ensemble"
Best
Ensemble
(This is not a Best Picture award. Nevertheless it does
indicate the type of
broad support that is often used as a correlative for Best Picture Oscar
Predictions. And actors themselves tend to view it as a Best Picture awards,
so.
Uh. Scratch that. It is a Best Picture award.)
WINNER Slumdog / My Preference: Milk
I foolishly hoped that they would remember that this isn't a "best picture" prize but then... I should've known with their nominations that that's all it is to them. But yes this further locks up Slumdog Millionaire as the obvious Best Picture winner in late February. Nobody else has a prayer at this point.my choice for the 5 best ensembles
Nominations, The Bad
If there was any doubt that Slumdog Millionaire was going to win Best Picture it was probably put to rest this morning. A nomination for this cast? All adequate and semi-engaging but ...best of the year? Over really focused interesting communal work in movies like The Dark Knight, Rachel Getting Married, Synecdoche New York, Happy-Go-Lucky, The Wrestler, Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day, StopLoss, ... I didn't even like all of those movies that much. But it's just no contest as to acting skills presented.Nominations, The Good
Or at least the understandable: Milk and Benjamin Button and Frost/NixonMy Winner Prediction:
The Curious Case of Benjamin ButtonI'm going to say DOUBT just for the heck of it.
Best Actor
The Visitor
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost / Nixon
Milk
The WrestlerWINNER Sean Penn Milk / My Preference: Penn or Rourke, don't matter to me. They're both amazing.
I think Penn will obviously repeat at the Oscars. Rourke needed more momentum. I think if the film had been released earlier there would have been more excitement about his comeback. It seems like just now the public is getting excited and public excitement helps Oscar momentum. Unfortunately for Rourke, the ballots are already being filled out.
Nominations, The Stable
All five of these performances have been doing very well in the precursors leading up to presumed Oscar nominations. This might be the lineup to predict: It's semi curious that Brad Pitt keeps doing so well for Benjamin Button. Now, I love Brad Pitt more than most and I've always thought him an undervalued actor. Nevertheless this isn't the sort of performance or role that would normally demand awards attention. Benjamin is something of a blank slate for you to project on to as exciteable characters orbit around him. Curious indeedSnub Factors
Will Oscar really snub Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) and Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)? Your thoughts pleaseMy Winner Prediction:
Sean Penn
Best Actress Drama
Rachel Getting Married
Changeling
Frozen River
Doubt
Revolutionary RoadWINNER Meryl Streep Doubt / My preference Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
I think that people want the Oscar to be a three way race between Hathaway, Streep and Winslet but I think it's pretty clear that 2008/09 is Winslets year. We're only contemplating a real contest because real contests hold suspense. Winslet will win the Oscar for The Reader. Oh, I'm sorry. That was a spoiler. I've killed your suspense.
My ballot for best actress
Nominations, The Confusing
Best Actress is turning into a real bloodbath this year. Melissa Leo 's nomination is a MAJOR get for the actress and her film. But will Oscar really snub the critical leader (Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky) and the comeback girl (Kristin Scott-Thomas, I've Loved You So Long) --both of whom are Golden Globe nominees?There's only 5 spots and this SAG lineup combined with the Globes and previous critical awards indicates that 7 women are very much in play: HATHAWAY, HAWKINS, JOLIE, LEO, SCOTT THOMAS, STREEP, WINSLET. Which five will it be. You tell me.
My Winner Prediction:
Meryl Streep
Best SUPPORTING Actress
Doubt
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Doubt
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
WINNER Kate Winslet The Reader / My Preference: Cruz or Davis
She'll win this again in Lead @ the Oscars. So this category might be the only suspenseful one on Oscar night. Cruz had all the momentum for a win before the Kate train derailed her but will that loss of momentum prevent her from returning and will Davis or Tomei fill the vacuum. Or are we back to Cruz? I think we're back to Cruz but I might be wrong.
My ballot for Best Supporting Actress
The Nominations, Globe-Like
This is nearly identical to the Globe lineup, only with a switcheroo from Marisa Tomei's stripper to Taraji P Henson's loving Brad Pitt mamma. But am I crazy to think that Amy Adams is still most vulnerable for an Oscar snub? Oscar nominations are based on preferential ballots and you need #1 placement. Who in their right mind doesn't put Viola Davis first when they think about how much they loved DOUBT.I think the Oscar lineup might just be the Globe and SAG lineups combined minus Adams. Which means: CRUZ, DAVIS, HENSON, TOMEI and WINSLET.
The Nominations, Forced
Kate Winslet's lead role in The Reader has been campaigned as supporting for Oscar but take note: SAG Voters are not allowed to stray from studio mandated categorizations. If a performer is listed as supporting they must vote that way. Oscar voters on the other hand can place names in any category and if enough of them who like Kate in The Reader think she's a lead it could cause her problems too.My Winner Prediction:
Kate Winslet
Best SUPPORTING Actor
Milk
Tropic Thunder
Slumdog Millionaire
Doubt
The Dark KnightWINNER Heath Ledger The Dark Knight / My Preference: Heath Ledger
Same as it's always been and will always be through Oscar night.My ballot for best supporting actor
Nominations, The Bad
God I hope Oscar doesn't repeat this Slumdog Millionaire madness. Here's my FYC for voters: Even if you love a movie. Even if you love it so much that you want to have it's babies, please think about the categories you're voting on and vote accordingly. Very few movies in the history of cinema have deserved nominations in every single category that exists. Just think it over.Nominations, To be Repeated at the Oscars
There's little Doubt that Brolin, Downey JR, Hoffman (a lead role) and Ledger are moving on to the Oscars but who gets the fifth spot: Patel, Franco or Michael Shannon (curiously failing in the precursors despite the type of role Oscar voters usually eat up with relish) or someone else entirely? Your predictions pleaseMy Winner Prediction:
Ledger
