OSCAR
RACE 2008
commentary
by Nathaniel R
Approximately
days since Hollywood's High Holy Night
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Sean Penn, MilkReaders Choice Sean Penn, Milk
Nathaniel's Choice Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler. But I love Sean too so I was happy about his win. My ballot matches Oscar only 2/5 though I'm very happy for Richard Jenkins who came in 6th for me. Brad Pitt is one of my favorite movie stars but I don't understand this nomination at all. I didn't feel like one learned anything about WHO Benjamin Button or his lover Daisy were as people for the entire three hours. Uncharacteristically empty performances by two very beautiful movie stars.Note: Film counts are rough totals. It can be hard to add since IMDB doesn't sort out short films, voicework or some TV efforts and this is just meant to be a feature film count only.
Final NOMINATION Predictions 5/5. Bingo!
discuss
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BLOG
| Richard Jenkins "Professor Vale" The Visitor |
Frank
Langella "Richard Nixon" Frost/Nixon |
Sean
Penn "Harvey Milk" Milk |
Brad
Pitt "Benjamin Button" The Curious Case of Benjamin Button |
Mickey
Rourke "Randy The Ram" The Wrestler |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| 61
years old |
71
years old 39 films 1st nomination! |
48
years old 36 films 5th nomination / 2nd win |
45
years old 37 films 2nd nomination |
52
years old 48 films 1st nomination! |
| Other
Awards: NBR ("spotlight"), Satellites Release: April 11th Box Office: $9 Company: Overture Role: A quiet professor who needs music in his life. He needs life in his life |
Other
Awards: Las Vegas, AAFCA Release: Dec 5th Box Office: $17 Company: Universal Role: Disgraced cocky ex-president. Hmmm, sound familiar? |
Other
Awards: SAG, NSFC, NYFCC, LAFCA, Boston and San Francisco
(tie), AWFJ, NYFCO, and 6 other regional critics orgs Release: Nov 26th Box Office: $28 Company: Focus Role: A gay political icon and activist |
Other
Awards: None Release: Dec 25th Box Office: $124 Company: Paramount / Warner Bros Role: a New Orleans man ages backwards but never stops loving Cate Blanchett |
Other
Awards: BAFTA, WFCC, OFCS, San Francisco and Boston (tie),
and 8 other regional critics orgs Release: Dec 17th Box Office: $21 Company: Fox Searchlight Role: a popular 80s wrestler attempts a comeback |
How'd
They Get Nominated? |
||||
38%
Performance. 26% Role: Moving and memorable. The arts as personal savior (in this case music) have strong Oscar appeal 13% Media boosted. Good precursors 12% Timing. Got buzz before A-listers did. Held onto it. 9% Respected and having strong year (also Burn After...) 2% Six Feet Under, North Country |
58%
Role: Oscar loves recreations of famous people (and politicians!) 17% Performance. 12% Plenty of precursor support 8% Starting Out in the Evening -- momentum started a year ago 4% Prestige factor: hit play + industry loved director 1% TONY winner transfers. Oscar has history with that trick |
28%
He's Sean Penn who can even get nom'ed for I am Sam
27% Role: "Bait" factors in abundance: playing
gay, tragic fate, famous politico, tears 26% Performance. Against type / super 10% Their favorite genre bar none (the biopic) 8% precursors 3% In better humor than usual on the campaign trail |
19%
In the Big movie 17% Felt like time for a second nod, didn't it? 16% precursors 14% Role is watching him become beautiful. 100% successful there 12% über famous 11% Performance (usually they hate acting through f/x so it's odd, but, accent!) 6% Voters taking an odd Clint break and Leo's film stumbled 3% "his & hers" nods 2% Tilda /Cate /Taraji |
67%
Role & Performance: One of those once in a lifetime combos of
star & role where you can't imagine anyone else. Whoever thought
of it first is a genius. A Gee-nee-us. 20% Comeback stories are heroin to voters 8% Darren Aronofsky 3% media and precursor support 2% "I'm just a broken down piece of meat" |
Should
Win / Will Win? |
||||
| Should Win / Will Win: I've never quite decided who is more deserving Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) or Sean Penn (Milk). Thankfully one of them will win. Whichever man it is it'll he'll be one of three most deserving winners in this category for the past decade. He'll be right up there with Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) and Adrien Brody (The Pianist). It's a win/win for us even though it'll be a lose for one of them. Would that we could have the first Best Actor tie... | ||||
Who
Got Robbed? |
||||
| There were other men with fans but considering that Ben Kingsley (Elegy) was never even in the race (did only 3 people see that movie? He was amazing!) Oscar did pretty well, don't you think? I imagine Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) fans aren't happy about the Revolutionary Road snub either, but Kate Winslet sucked up all the awards narrative this year and he didn't absorb any of that traction. My ballot | ||||
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