OSCAR RACE 2008
commentary by Nathaniel R

days until Oscar Nomination are announced

 

Best Actor - April 1st Predictions

04/01/08
Oh Oscar. You're so predictable. I'ma throw three biopic characters in here! That's what you love most: let's say Harvey Milk, Richard Nixon and Che Guevera. Than a film I'm counting on in the Best Picture area (that'd be Benjamin Button and my beloved Brad who hasn't been nominated for 13 years) and then Doubt, cuz acclaim for Hoffman is automatic and he'll also (presumably) have Synechdoche New York out to add to the need to honor him. Though I could easily see him dumped for one of the men in the second tier if Doubt doesn't measure up to full expectations... and they really love one of those other films.

Discuss on the blog
1
2
3
4
5
Sean Penn
Milk
4 noms / 1 win
NOV
Frank Langella
Frost/Nixon
never nominated
JUN
Benicio Del Toro
 The Argentine / Guerilla
2 noms / 1 win
TBA
Brad Pitt
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
1 nom
DEC
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
 Doubt
2 noms / 1 win
DEC
Why?
Biopic character. A gay man who doesn't survive (they don't go for the happy ones) and a director that should know how to make this a strong film
Why not?
Might be too artsy or too gay for them
Why?
AMPAS has a long history of honoring TONY winning roles once they make it onscreen. Langella already has one trophy. Starting out in the Evening good will adds in too
Why not?
Bigger stars in the mix
Why?
He's a great actor. And it's a legendary character. And it's a biography. What's not to Oscar?
Why not?
The two part nature of this film worries me. How will the box office be? What will the Academy make of it.
Why?
He hasn't been nominated in a long time and he is constantly in the news. This is an interesting role and he works so well with David Fincher.
Why not?
The director might be the one getting credit for this film
Why?
Though he only has two nominations, he feels like a default nominee already, doesn't he? And this role is meaty.
Why not?
...but also kinda queasy. We'll see.
6
7
8
9
10
Leonardo DiCaprio
Revolutionary Road
3 nominations
DEC
Mark Ruffalo
Blindness
never nominated
SEPT
Ralph Fiennes
The Reader
2 nominations
DEC
Daniel Craig
Defiance
never nominated
DEC
Will Smith
Seven Pounds
2 nominations
DEC
Why?
The Titanic reunion will be a big media deal and it's probably time to honor him with a statue
Why not?
Very crowded year (as per usual)
Why?
He's got the lead role as the eye doctor who is one of the first people to go blind. It's a good part and he's undervalued
Why not?
He's undervalued
Why?
Remember in The English Patient when Fiennes pined over a woman from his past? Yeah, so does Oscar. They might want part two.
Why not?
Crowded year.
Why?
He should've been nominated for his great Bond rejuvenation in Casino Royale but this role, a Jewish resistance fighter is more up their alley
Why not?
He'll need the film to be a shortlister, I think.
Why?
His last collaboration with this director, Pursuit of Happyness, won him a nod
Why not?
Crowded year and plot descriptions are vague. How's the role?


Other Possibilities
13 Jamie Foxx The Soloist
14 Cillian Murphy The Edge of Love
15 Leonardo DiCaprio Body of Lies



16 Phillip Seymour Hoffman Synecdoche, New York
17 Jake Gyllenhaal Brothers
18 Ben Kingsley Elegy
19 Cillian Murphy Hippie Hippie Shake
20 Leon Lai Mei Lanfang
21 Samuel L Jackson Lakeview Terrace
22 Eric Bana The Time Traveler's Wife
23 Richard Gere Nights in Rodanthe
24 Sam Rockwell Choke
25 Joaquin Phoenix Two Lovers
11
12
Liam Neeson
The Other Man
1 nomination
TBA
Hugh Jackman
 Australia
never nominated
NOV
Why?
He plays the suspicious husband of cheating (?) Laura Linney here. They're a strong team
Why not?
They even snubbed him for a bio role (Kinsey) and they love those
Why?
He's headlining what will surely be one of the most talked about movies of the year. He's a huge star.
Why not?
Male romantic leads have a tough time getting nominated.
prediction history

April: Del Toro, Hoffman, Langella, Penn, Pitt

 

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