OSCAR RACE 2008
commentary by Nathaniel R

Approximately days since Hollywood's High Holy Night

 

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Sean Penn, Milk

Readers Choice Sean Penn, Milk

Nathaniel's Choice Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
. But I love Sean too so I was happy about his win. My ballot matches Oscar only 2/5 though I'm very happy for Richard Jenkins who came in 6th for me. Brad Pitt is one of my favorite movie stars but I don't understand this nomination at all. I didn't feel like one learned anything about WHO Benjamin Button or his lover Daisy were as people for the entire three hours. Uncharacteristically empty performances by two very beautiful movie stars.

Note: Film counts are rough totals. It can be hard to add since IMDB doesn't sort out short films, voicework or some TV efforts and this is just meant to be a feature film count only.

Final NOMINATION Predictions 5/5. Bingo!

discuss @ THE BLOG
 

Richard Jenkins
"Professor Vale"
The Visitor
Frank Langella
"Richard Nixon"
Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn
"Harvey Milk"
Milk
Brad Pitt
"Benjamin Button"
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke
"Randy The Ram"
The Wrestler

61 years old
52 films

1st nomination!

71 years old
39 films

1st nomination!
48 years old
36 films
5th nomination / 2nd win
45 years old
37 films
2nd nomination
52 years old
48 films

1st nomination!
Other Awards: NBR ("spotlight"), Satellites
Release:
April 11th
Box Office: $9
Company:
Overture
Role:
A quiet professor who needs music in his life. He needs life in his life
Other Awards: Las Vegas, AAFCA
Release: Dec 5th
Box Office: $17
Company:
Universal
Role: Disgraced cocky ex-president. Hmmm, sound familiar?
Other Awards: SAG, NSFC, NYFCC, LAFCA, Boston and San Francisco (tie), AWFJ, NYFCO, and 6 other regional critics orgs
Release: Nov 26th
Box Office: $28
Company:
Focus
Role: A gay political icon and activist
Other Awards: None
Release: Dec 25th
Box Office: $124
Company:

Paramount / Warner Bros
Role: a New Orleans man ages backwards but never stops loving Cate Blanchett
Other Awards: BAFTA, WFCC, OFCS, San Francisco and Boston (tie), and 8 other regional critics orgs
Release: Dec 17th
Box Office: $21
Company:
Fox Searchlight
Role: a popular 80s wrestler attempts a comeback
How'd They Get Nominated?
38% Performance.
26%
Role: Moving and memorable. The arts as personal savior (in this case music) have strong Oscar appeal
13% Media boosted. Good precursors
12%
Timing. Got buzz before A-listers did. Held onto it.
9% Respected and having strong year (also Burn After...)
2% Six Feet Under, North Country
58% Role: Oscar loves recreations of famous people (and politicians!)
17% Performance.
12% Plenty of precursor support
8% Starting Out in the Evening -- momentum started a year ago
4% Prestige factor: hit play + industry loved director
1% TONY winner transfers. Oscar has history with that trick
28% He's Sean Penn who can even get nom'ed for I am Sam 27% Role: "Bait" factors in abundance: playing gay, tragic fate, famous politico, tears
26% Performance. Against type / super
10% Their favorite genre bar none (the biopic)
8% precursors
3% In better humor than usual on the campaign trail
19% In the Big movie
17% Felt like time for a second nod, didn't it?
16% precursors
14% Role is watching him become beautiful. 100% successful there
12% über famous
11% Performance (usually they hate acting through f/x so it's odd, but, accent!)
6% Voters taking an odd Clint break and Leo's film stumbled
3% "his & hers" nods
2% Tilda /Cate /Taraji
67% Role & Performance: One of those once in a lifetime combos of star & role where you can't imagine anyone else. Whoever thought of it first is a genius. A Gee-nee-us.
20% Comeback stories are heroin to voters
8% Darren Aronofsky
3% media and precursor support
2%
"I'm just a broken down piece of meat"
Should Win / Will Win?
Should Win / Will Win: I've never quite decided who is more deserving Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler) or Sean Penn (Milk). Thankfully one of them will win. Whichever man it is it'll he'll be one of three most deserving winners in this category for the past decade. He'll be right up there with Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) and Adrien Brody (The Pianist). It's a win/win for us even though it'll be a lose for one of them. Would that we could have the first Best Actor tie...
Who Got Robbed?
There were other men with fans but considering that Ben Kingsley (Elegy) was never even in the race (did only 3 people see that movie? He was amazing!) Oscar did pretty well, don't you think? I imagine Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road) fans aren't happy about the Revolutionary Road snub either, but Kate Winslet sucked up all the awards narrative this year and he didn't absorb any of that traction. My ballot

 

discuss @ THE BLOG

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