Best Actress in a Leading Role
Kate Winslet, The Reader

Readers Choice Meryl Streep, Doubt
Nathaniel's Choice Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky. 3/5 similarity to my nominee ballot
Nomination Predictions I scored only 3/5. I got Winslet for the wrong film and assumed that love for Mike Leigh and his lead actresses would secure Sally Hawkins a spot, despite her poor precursor showing.

(Feature film counts are rough totals and exclude voicework. It can be hard to add since IMDB doesn't sort out shorts, docs or TV efforts)

Anne Hathaway "Kym" Rachel Getting Married	Angelina Jolie "Mrs. Christine Collins" Changeling	Melissa Leo "Ray Eddy" Frozen River	Meryl Streep "Sister Aloysius Beauvier" Doubt	Kate Winslet "Hanna Schmitz" The Reader
26 years old 13 films 1st nomination!	33 years old 29 films 2nd nomination / 1 win	48 years old 45 films 1st nomination!	59 years old 41 films 15th nom / 2 wins	33 years old 21 films 6th nom / 1st win
Other Awards: NBR, SEFCA, Houston, Austin, Dallas, Chicago Release: Oct 3rd Box Office: $12 Company: Sony Pictures Classics Role: a recovering addict visits her estranged family for her sister's wedding	Other Awards: Satellites, AAFCA Release: Oct 31st Box Office: $35 Company: Universal Role: a working single mother in the 1920s battles the LAPD when her son goes missing and they replace him with another child	Other Awards: NBR (spotlight), Gotham, Florida, Utah Release: Aug 1st Box Office: $2 Company: Sony Pictures Classics Role: a poverty stricken mother gets involved with illegal smuggling	Other Awards: DC, Phoenix, Kansas, BFCA (tie), SAG Release: Dec 12th Box Office: $31 Company: Miramax Role: a hard hearted nun suspects a priest of molesting a child	Other Awards: BAFTA (lead), SAG, GLOBE, & BFCA (for supporting), AWFJ (tie also Rev Rod), Las Vegas (also Rev Road) Release: Dec 10th Box Office: $23 Company: MGM/ Weinstein Co Role: a mysterious German women has an affair with a teenager
How'd They Get Nominated?
48% Performance. A real breakthrough 18% Role: Addict 14% Brokeback Mountain and The Devil Wears Prada showed them her savvy taste in projects and earned goodwill - time to stamp her with seal of approval 9% Precursor support 7% Famous 4% The princess factor if not the Princess factor	42% Role: Enormously "Bait"y with tears, asylum sequences, tears, Mother Love, grief and more tears 20% Performance. 15% unwavering precursor support 8% über famous 7% A Mighty Heart snub last year 5% Clint Eastwood film 2% big Brad Pitt year 1% Her character even loves the Oscars	63% Performance. It's a gritty and lived in knock out 19% Role: They love actresses playing the hard knock life (minor deglam points --she's not Charlize Theron but it applies) 16% First FYC screener out. Got awards traction early and it stuck w/ precursors 2% 21 Grams and Homicide	31% She's Meryl Streep 25% Proven Awards Magnet Role: Aloysius gets all the best lines 21% Performance. Dramatic and comic 10% The kind of film that wins acting nominations so long as you don't screw up 6% Mamma Mia! (a banner year for her) 5% Precursor support 2% Momentum for third win still building	28% She's Kate Winslet 24% The Role: old age makeup, accent, heavy drama, courtroom scenes, tears ... in short, the works 20% Guilt. "The whole word is asking 'why hasn't Winslet won one?' " -Extras 19% Performance 6% The Holocaust 3% Revolutionary Road -- though it might have also caused trouble
Should Win / Will Win?
Should Win: Though sentiment and career honors completely back up wins for either Meryl (26 years since her last win? Argh!) or Kate (still waiting), performance wise Anne Hathaway shines brightest. Her performance is the most highwire, vulnerable, and complicated. She has to sell an unlikeable character and her charisma and manipulative charms. She also has to subdue deep and real backstory emotions underneath toxic acting-out emotional hyperbole. And she has to be funny and break your heart Will Win: Kate Winslet. It's time and the world knows it. Oscar voters live in that world, too.
Who Got Robbed?
Kristin Scott Thomas had a lot of die hard supporters this year but the obvious missing link in this lineup is the NYFCC, LAFCA and NSFC winner Sally Hawkins who essayed the central character of Mike Leigh's fascinating Happy-Go-Lucky, an ode of sorts to optimism and a study of perception as reality. Her snub was unprecedented in some statistical ways (see more here) but she had had precursor trouble, even from BAFTA who usually rally for their hometown girls. But screw Oscar. A great performance is its own reward. She gave one and we were rewarded for it.

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