Best
Actress - July 6th
Predictions |
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| 07/02/08
With Chéri moving back to 2009, I think it's time
I stopped resisting the siren call of Kate Winslet in Revolutionary
Road. I love her enormously but I still hold true to the belief
that most Oscar predictors are too quick (or too nervous about bolder
calls?) to assume each and every year that the Winslets, the Blanchetts,
and the Streeps will be there. Nobody gets nominated every year.
But, that said, I'm putting her in... because if only one of the
mainstays is missing I'm absolutely confident that it's going to
be Blanchett... primarily because her film (Benjamin Button)
is not hers in the way the others are the true leads of their films. discuss @ THE BLOG |
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Angelina
Jolie The Changeling 1 nom / 1 win Universal -10/24 prev: 2,3 |
Kate
Winslet Revolutionary Road 5 nominations Paramount -12/26 prev: 7,7 |
Sally
Hawkins Happy-Go-Lucky never nominated Miramax -9/26 prev: 4,6 |
Drew
Barrymore Grey Gardens never nominated TBA -10/31 prev: 5,2 |
Meryl
Streep Doubt 14 noms / 2 wins Miramax - 10/10 prev: 1,1 |
Why? It's an Eastwood film and he has a way of getting his actors recognized. The snub last year might help Why not? Plot synopsis reads a little on the genre side and there've been a lot of missing children / grieving moms. |
Why? It's in her wheel house: restless unhappy woman in the suburbs. Added hook of Titanic reteam and the media interest or working with her husband Why not? Too reminiscent of earlier work? She isn't nominated for every film. |
Why? She's in a Mike Leigh film that people are already gaga for. Leigh has directed two strong best actress nominees in the past Why not? But only three of his films have truly excited the Academy. |
Why? It's a strong bio role (see the doc. or the stage musical) --Oscar never tires of those. Plus: that Hollywood and Oscar lineage Why not? Eccentric roles aren't easy to pull off. How firm is the release date? |
Why? Streep + a meaty powerhouse role + intense drama = Gold? Oscar used to love nuns. Do they still? Why not? If the film isn't great or if it plays too stagey, it might be time to honor others. I've started worrying a little about the film |
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Meryl
Streep Mamma Mia! 14 noms / 2 wins July prev: unranked |
Anne
Hathaway Rachel Getting Married never nominated SPC - TBA prev: 8,4 |
Natalie
Portman Brothers 1 nomination TBA -12/04 prev:6, 5 |
Sophie
Okonedo Skin 1 nomination TBA prev: 14,11 |
Nicole
Kidman Australia 2 noms / 1 win November prev: 13,8 |
Why? If they're not in the mood for Meryl as a nun there's always this option. And Meryl is truly magical when she sings (see also: Postcards, Ironweed and Prairie Home Companion) Why not? Mamma Mia? |
Why? Her star keeps rising. The role sounds memorable. Could be time for Oscar to put their stamp on her. GG comedy? Why not? It's been almost 20 years since Demme led actresses to critical glory. Shifting title. No buzz or date set yet |
Why? The original film is quite moving and this was a weepy centerpiece part for Connie Nielsen in the Danish film Why not? Sheridan is a strong actor's director but the whole cast will need to be at the top of their game. She's a little young for the role. |
Why? The role (black daughter of white parents in Apartheid era South Africa) sounds baity. She's been in the race before. Why not? I'd place her much higher but for the very low profile. When will this be released? How much of a push? |
Why? If the film is a success it might be time to backlash agains the backlash she's been suffering through. She's often so good in dramas Why not? Backlash against her as a celebrity and actress still seems in vogue. Not warm and cuddly like Oscar sometimes needs. |
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Julianne
Moore Blindness 4 nominations Miramax -9/26 prev: 10,10 |
Kate
Beckinsale Nothing But the Truth never nominated Yari -TBA prev 23,23 |
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Why? She's a regular, the source material is great, the role is big Why not? Are they over her? Will this bleak film appeal more to the other branches? Her performance is said to be very subtle. Sometimes they pass on that. |
Why? Could be time to regain her early career buzz as a real actress rather than a sexy starlet. Last time director Rod Lurie focused on an actress she got in... Why not? but that actress was Joan Allen (The Contender). Beckinsale doesn't have her rep. |
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prediction
history |
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July:
Barrymore, Hawkins, Jolie, Streep, Winslet previous notes: 04/01/08 Streep and Barrymore I'm good with. I've always felt that Drew Barrymore would get nominated the second she had an Oscary role and challenged herself. The Barrymores are Hollywood royalty after all. I thought I'd risk skipping Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road. It's probably insane but she isn't nominated for every film. Showcase nominatable parts that they've skipped her for include Jude (too bleak), Holy Smoke! (too weird), Quills (I have no idea why) the latter two of which were December releases. I'm just guessing. I just feel like it can't be as obvious as it seems this far in advance. And I've also put her in the supporting category for The Reader --I'm assuming she'll work category fraud to fight for a double nod... but a double nomination this year (which I'm sure others are predicting) would place her in the top 8 women of all time. Which is... insane. And she'd be getting their faster than anyone ever including the current champ Bette Davis who had seven nominations by the age of 34 (it slowed down for Bette a lot directly thereafter). Winslet, should she reach 7 nominations this year would beat Streep to it by 5 years and Katharine Hepburn to it by 16 years. Otherwise... Hathaway and Portman both feel very risky as choices, but I like to take risks in early bird predictions and I'm feeling that this will be a fresh face Oscar year other than the winner --with the award going to Streep finally, after a 25 year losing streak. 06/12/08 We'll have a firm sense of this race by October I think. Angelina Jolie's Changeling star turn made a big splash at Cannes and her snub last year should help her cause this year. But other than that glamorous globetrotter, it might be Miramax's team dominating the race with three A list type Oscar situations: Hollywood legends Meryl Streep & Michelle Pfeiffer in period dramas and one acclaimed lead in a Mike Leigh lead in the form of Sally Hawkins. She can't compete for star power but that worked for similarly low profile (at the time) Brenda Blethyn (Secrets and Lies, 1996) and Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake, 2004) Then there's the question of Hollywood's younger players and who might be lifted up: Drew Barrymore, Anne Hathaway, Anna Paquin and Emily Blunt all have what seem like good roles on paper. Can any of them compete with Oscar's beloved perennial fiancee Kate Winslet for that shortlist? Should be an exciting year. |
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