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The Collective Prediction & Points of Interest
193 readers have spoken. 63 Different performances have been mentioned with a third of those being named on only one ballot. Last year, 66 different performances received at least one vote and there were no duplicate ballots. Still and all the collective prediction was close to what actually occurred. Three of the five nominees were present. The top six vote getters --there was essentially a tie for fifth place -- were Cate Blanchett, Julie Christie, Marion Cotillard, Angelina Jolie, Nicole Kidman, and Natalie Portman. Only the latter two came nowhere near the Academy's shortlist: Kidman won raves but no traction whatsoever for a film few people liked (Margot at the Wedding), Portman's film (The Other Boleyn Girl) was delayed until 2008 and opened to bad reviews. Rounding out the top vote getters in 2007 were two cinema giants Vaness Redgrave (Evening) and Meryl Streep (Lions For Lambs) neither of whom got any awards traction whatsoever for films that were panned. And finally, there was Helena Bonham-Carter (Sweeney Todd) who made a decent showing on ballots and had a late point gathering surge at Christmas but she couldn't go the distance. Laura Linney was on a smattering of ballots --all of the eventual nominees save Ellen Page (Juno) were in the collective top 20. So how close will the collective prediction be this year? 3/5 again? Less? More? Is groupthink a viable way to go so far in advance? The collectively created Oscar nomination prediction is... in descending order of your faith in them [drumroll please] *
#1	#2	#3	#4	#5
Meryl Streep 14 noms / 2 wins Doubt 166 ballots 86% of ballots	Kate Winslet 5 noms / 0 wins Revolutionary Road 143 ballots 74% of ballots	Angelina Jolie 1 nom / 1 win Changeling 116 ballots 60% of ballots	Julianne Moore 4 noms / 0 wins Blindness 89 ballots 46% of ballots	Emily Blunt never nominated Young Victoria 77 ballots 40% of ballots
There was much less disagreement this year in the Psychic Ballots. These five women clearly instilled more confidence and are the collective predicted Academy shortlist. All of these look good on paper (the type that do well on unseeen predictions). In fact, over 75% of the lineups included both Streep and Winslet (two of Oscar's favorite actors) However great this lineup seems right now, it's probably too Oscar loved with two past winners and three regular nominees in the lineup. Only Emily Blunt is a newbie (in a biopic role: score!). Also: this is a completely dramatic lineup. There's nothing that would qualify for the lighter Golden Globe Musical or Comedy spot that we sometimes see in the final shortlist. So it'll be interesting to see if these five do hold up once they're in theaters. I'm not sure how exciting the contest will be if they do. For, you see, last year in this contest's debut year there were literally no identical submissions. This year there were several with these exact five and several more identicals with various permutations from the top seven vote getters. Bummer.
#6	#7	#8	#9
Nicole Kidman 2 noms / 1 win Australia 56 ballots	Sally Hawkins never nominated Happy Go Lucky 51 ballots	Kate Winslet 5 noms / 0 wins The Reader 42 ballots	Anne Hathaway never nominated Dancing With Shiva 34 ballots
The second tier --who showed on a solid number of ballots --includes only one previous winner (Kidman returning to her Moulin Rouge! director Baz Luhrmann) two Oscar newbies: Hawkins in a Mike Leigh film --he helped both Imelda Staunton and Brenda Blethyn into the Academy's good graces in the past for Vera Drake and Secrets & Lies respectively; Hathaway directed by Jonathan Demme who also gets fine work from his actresses. Winslet's other performance is also here. Presumably most psychics feel that her work in The Reader will either go supporting or that it just won't have the Best Actress oomph that the re-teaming with Leonardo DiCaprio will have in Revolutionary Road. This second tier could just as easily be shortlisters. It's so early and nobody has seen any of the films. Any combo of these nine performances looks damn Oscary from a distance, doesn't it? But from here on out, the 200 competitors disagree by quite a lot.
#10 (tie)		#12	#13	#14
Natalie Portman 1 nom / 0 wins Brothers 18 ballots	Drew Barrymore never nominated Grey Gardens 18 ballots	Cate Blanchett 5 noms / 1 win The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 17 ballots	Laura Linney 3 noms / 0 wins The Other Man 14 ballots	Rachel McAdams never nominated The Time Traveler's Wife 12 ballots
Portman has a great role in Brothers taking over for Connie Nielsen who starred in the fine Danish film this is based on, though some feel (and I agree) that she's probably a little young for it. She may be able to surmount that hurdle since the team assembled is strong and so is the director (Jim Sheridan). I've long believed that should Barrymore (Grey Gardens) ever challenge herself she'd be in the running so you'll see her on my prediction ballot too when I announce. The role of "Little Edie" is easy to love though maybe difficult to pull off. Can she do it? Academy regular Blanchett also showed up on nearly 10% of the ballots for her work in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button though from a distance hers doesn't look like the showcased role in that film. It's possible that Pitt is the entire focus with all the other characters merely swirling around him. Finally there's last year's nominee Linney who is directed by performance maestro Richard Eyre of Notes on a Scandal and Iris fame and McAdams in a longsuffering love role in a film that could definitely go either way.
#15	#16 (tie)
Uma Thurman 1 nom / 0 wins Life Before Her Eyes 10 ballots	Anna Paquin 1 nom / 1 win Margaret 7 ballots	Keira Knightley 1 nom/ 0 wins The Duchess 7 ballots
Thurman's spring release Life Before Her Eyes in which she plays a woman plagued by a trauma from her past (when she is played by Evan Rachel Wood) is on only about 5% of the ballots and picking up other scraps are supporting actress winner Paquin, who plays another witness to a trauma, in the long long delayed Margaret and Knightley back in period garb for The Duchess.
#18 (tie ... which makes the top 20 vote getters a top 21)
Penelope Cruz 1 nom / 0 wins Elegy 6 ballots	Jessica Lange 6 noms / 2 wins Grey Gardens 6 ballots	Sophie Okonedo 1 nom / 0 wins Skin 6 ballots	Emily Watson 2 noms/ 0 wins Within the Whirlwind 6 ballots
I have to quit somewhere so the last four I'm including ended up on 6 ballots each, which is like 3% of ballots? I'm bad at math. The rest? Presumably some of the other performances that inspired a handful or less votes didn't get stronger totals because either a) you didn't believe in their comeback power if they're a previous nominee b) you didn't believe that their films would actually come out in time c) you didn't think the role was Oscary enough or d) the project wasn't high profile enough or e) some combo of the above. They were... 5 ballots each Julianne Moore, Savage Grace Sigourney Weaver, The Girl in the Park Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri (2009?) 4 ballots each Helen Mirren, Love Ranch (2009?) Rachel McAdams, The Lucky Ones 3 ballots each Kerry Washington, Lakeview Terrace Sarah Jessica Park, Sex & the City: The Movie 2 ballots each Amy Adams, Sunshine Cleaning Kate Beckinsale, Nothing But the Truth Julie Delpy, The Countess (2009?) Dakota Fanning, Hounddog Helen Hunt, Then She Found Me Scarlet Johansson, Mary Queen of Scots (2009?) Keira Knightley, The Edge of Love Diane Lane, Nights in Rodanthe Ellen Page, The Tracey Fragments Sibide, Push Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia! Tilda Swinton, Julia Meg Ryan, The Women 1 ballot each Hiam Abbas, The Visitor Mischa Barton, Closing the Ring Maria Bello, Downloading Nancy Halle Berry, Tulia Juliette Binoche, Flight of the Red Balloon Emily Blunt, Sunshine Cleaning Ellen Burstyn, Lovely Still Patricia Clarkson, Married Life Vera Farmiga, Nothing But the Truth Norah Jones, My Blueberry Nights Melissa Leo, Frozen River Melissa Leo, Lullaby Gwyneth Paltrow, Two Lovers Franka Potente, The Argentine Julia Roberts, Fireflies in the Garden Saoirse Ronan, The Lovely Bones (2009?) Sissy Spacek, Lake City Tilda Swinton, Come Like Shadows (2009?) Charlize Theron, The Burning Plains (2009?) Carice Van Houten, Dorothy Mills Naomi Watts, Funny Games Ziyi Zhang, Mei Lanfang

 

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The Film Experience "year in advance" Oscar preview and predictions begin on March 31st and concludes on April 1st.