2008 EARLY BIRD OSCAR GUESSWORK
by
Nathaniel R
pg1 (Columbia through Newline) / pg 2 (Paramount through Warner Bros)
pg 3 current calendar / pg 4 OSCAR PREDIX
Last year I had my best ever year-in-advance guesswork correctly predicting 3 of the Best Pictures and Actresses, 2 of many categories and an incredible 4 of 5 in the eventual Art Direction category... can I match that for 2008? I doubt it. But I'm proud to have last year's best early bird web predictions.
The Studio Rundown
Release dates are always fluid and to some extent movie studios are too since they sometimes change deals or abandon films or what have you, but you know how this works by now. TFE brings you an overview or what might be the biggest deals for each studio. And then the current planned release schedule.... though I should note that this ALWAYS changes as the year goes due to studio faith or lack thereof in a given project along with concerns of the marketplace. The schedule is never as it appears in March and April by the time we hit the fall.
COLUMBIA / SONY / SONY PICTURES CLASSICS
Last Year: Not So Much
Recent Oscar Success: Capote
Halfway House: Memoirs of a Geisha, Persepolis, Pursuit of Happyness, Volver
Didn't Pan Out (At Least Oscar-Wise): Marie Antoinette, Running With Scissors, All the Kings Men, Black Book, Across the Universe, The DaVinci Code
Not a behemoth recently, though Sony Pictures Classics is often involved with high quality foreign features.
MVP guesstimate
Dancing With Shiva Director Jonathan Demme who was once a critical darling (mid to late 80s) and one-time Oscar favorite (Silence of the Lambs, 1991) finally returns with original material. He's been flailing with remakes (Manchurian Candidate, The Truth About Charlie) since his heyday. Can he make a dramedy that appeals to both critics and Oscar and audiences again? Anne Hathaway and Debra Winger star in this tale of an ex-model returning to her estranged family for her sisters wedding. [TBA]
wild card
Seven Pounds The Pursuit of Happyness team, director Gabriele Muccino and Will Smith, reunite for this drama about a man who touches the lives of seven strangers. Co-starring Woody Harrelson, Barry Pepper and Rosario Dawson [DEC]also
Quantum of Solace The new Bond picture. But Casino Royale, a box office smash, critical hit and franchise revivifyer didn't receive even one Oscar nomination [NOV]
Nick and Nora's Infinite Playlist Director Peter Sollett, who worked wonders with the young cast of the teen romantic drama Raising Victor Vargas finally has made another picture. This one, another teen romance, stars Michael Cera and Kat Dennings [OCT]
Lakeview Terrace -Patrick Wilson (Little Children) and the lovely Kerry Washington are an interracial couple harassed by a cop (Samuel L Jackson) in this drama from the always controversial Neil LaBute [SEPT]
Passengers has actor's director Rodrigo Garcia (Nine Lives) directing a group therapy drama about plane crash survivors. Anne Hathaway is the very young therapist. Co-starring Patrick Wilson, Andre Braugher, Clea DuVal and Dianne Wiest. [SEPT]
Pineapple Express stars Seth Rogen and James Franco (Freaks & Geeks reunited) and will be credited to the Judd Apatow school of filmmaking though critical darling David Gordon Green (Snow Angels, George Washington) is actually at the helm. [AUG]
The International. a crime thriller starring Clive Owen as an interpol agent. Naomi Watts and Armin Muehller-Stahl (Eastern Promises reunion!) co-star. Directed by German wonder Tom Tykver (Run Lola Run) [AUG]
Hancock Peter Berg directs Will Smith in this superhero comedy. Co-starring Charlize Theron. [JUL]
Redbelt David Mamet drama about shady business in prize fighting business. Starring Chiewetel Eijofor, Joe Mantegna and Emily Mortimer [MAY]
The Wackness Ben Kingsley, Josh Peck, Olivia Thirlby and Famke Jannsen star in this indie about a teen drug dealer and his psychiatrist [TBA]
Frozen River stars Melissa Leo (21 Grams) and Missy Upham as desperate single moms in the smuggling business from Canada to New York State. [TBA]
Winged Creatures Rowan Woods directs an eclectic ensemble (Jennifer Hudson, Dakota Fanning, Kate Beckinsale, Guy Pearce and Forest Whitaker) in this story of survivors of a random shooting. [TBA]
delayed from last year
The Children of Huang Shi Roger Spottiswoode (The Sixth Day ) Jonathan Rhys Meyers and Radha Mitchell attempt to save a Chiense Orphanage as the Japanes invade in 1937. Crouching Tiger's Michelle Yeoh and Chow Yun Fat are reunited in the supporting cast. Spottiswoode has a pretty spotty (sorry) filmography but you never know. It might be really pretty or impressive [MAY]
And When Did You Last See Your Father? Anand Tucker (Shopgirl, Hilary & Jackie) directs Colin Firth and Jim Broadbent in this father/son drama [JUN]
The Other Boleyn Girl Justin Chadwick debut film with A listers Natalie Portman and Scarlet Johansson as they vie for the King Eric Bana's affections did not receive good reviews but if it's a weak period piece year there's a slim chance that Sandy Powell (an Oscar favorite) could survive for a costume nomination [MAR]
DREAMWORKS SKG
Dreamworks ... I can't begin to fathom anymore. I don't follow the corporate side of Hollywood enough. They were a major player when they started but now they mostly seem to do co-productions where Oscar is concerned. This year they could show up in several categories (if past history is any indication) with Joe Wright's (Pride & Prejudice, Atonement) third effort The Soloist (currently filming) which is about a schizophrenic musician who dreams of playing concert halls... but just that description itself makes me think it's the type of bait that could land with a thud. And rare is the new filmmaker who strikes Oscar's fancy every time out. They also have Tropic of Thunder (a Ben Stiller comedy in August), Madagascar 2 (an animated sequel in November).
FOCUS FEATURES
Last Year: Atonement was their prize possession
Recent Oscar Success: Atonement, Brokeback Mountain
Halfway House: Eastern Promises, Into the Wild, The Constant Gardener, Pride & Prejudice, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Didn't Pan Out (At Least Oscar-Wise): Reservation Road, Lust Caution, Catch a Fire, Hollywoodland, Door in the Floor, Evening, Vanity Fair
Focus (which began life as USA Films and is technically part of Universal -next page) has been churning out a pretty great ratio of solid lineups as studios go. They're usually in the Oscar race though they don't ever end up truly dominating... at least not yet.
MVP guesstimate
Milk Gus Van Sant (Good Will Hunting, Elephant) returns to the mainstream (maybe?) with this Harvey Milk biopic. It's a great important story and Oscar likes bios and important historical items. But it's also very gay (and Oscar gets more skittish there). Starring Sean Penn as the gay icon activist. Co-starring Josh Brolin, James Franco and Emile Hirsch. [Nov]
wildcard
The Argentine and Guerilla (?) This is a two part Che Guevera biopic --Focus's second actually (they also distributed the Motorcycle Diaries) and it stars Oscar winner Benicio Del Toro as the revolutionary. It's from Oscar winner Steven Soderbergh (Traffic). The reason its' not the MVP is that the director has divided his epic in two, a la Clint Eastwood's WW II pictures two years back (the second half got the best pic nod) or Tarantino's Kill Bill epic earlier this decade (zero nominations despite being technically marvelous). It's tough to say how Oscar will respond to half films or even if they'll both come out this year... or one this year, one next. Or both next year. ARGH. The very definition of a wildcard.also
9 This expansion of a creepy Oscar nominated short film could be the animation categories annual more-adult offering or it could just be too weird for them. [DEC]
Burn After Reading The Coen Bros return to original comedy writing and directing after their dramatic thriller won the top prize this past February (No Country For Old Men) This ensemble includes George Clooney, Tilda Swinton, John Malkovich, Brad Pitt, Frances McDormand, Richard Jenkins and more [Sept]
Hamlet 2 This Sundance comedy hit from Andrew Fleming is about a teacher who encourages his kids to write a sequel to Hamlet. [AUG]
Miss Pettigrew Lives For a Day Frances McDormand and Amy Adams in a period farce. [MAR]
In Bruges Martin McDonogh, the great playwright who won the Oscar for his short film Six Shooter, impressed those who saw this crime comedy starring Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson and Ralph Fiennes [FEB]
FOX/FOX SEARCHLIGHT
Last Year: Juno won hearts, Oscar nods, and big bucks
Recent Oscar Success: Juno, Little Miss Sunshine, Sideways, Notes on a Scandal
Halfway House: Last King of Scotland, The Devil Wears Prada, Once, Walk the Line
Didn't Pan Out (At Least Oscar-Wise): Kinsey, I Heart Huckabees, A Good Year, Waitress, The Darjeeling Limited, History Boys, Melinda & MelindaThey've proven themselves repeatedly with savvy campaigns and perserverance. Last year, even though they seemed to abandoned The Savages in favor of Juno they both wound up with major big eight Oscar nods. At this point Searchlight seem to own the "light" spot that makes up 1/5th of many Oscar races.
MVP guesstimates
Australia Baz Lurhmann's Moulin Rouge! follow-up takes him away from his 'red curtain' trilogy to the more traditional well-traveled realm of the period epic. This takes place in the 30s in Australia and it's about an English aristocrat (Kidman) who inherits a cattle ranch andbecomes involved with the stock-man (Jackman)
Also: My feeling is that Fox Searchlight hasn't bought their "Juno/Little Miss Sunshine" just yet. They're probably looking for their next big Oscar film at the festivals. Just a hunch.
also
The Day The Earth Stood Still a remake of the 1951 sci-fi classic. Technical merits or just would be blockbuster? [DEC]
Choke Clark Gregg adapted the Chuck Palahniuk (Fight Club) novel about a sex addict con-man. Sam Rockwell (still unnominated) plays him. Co-starring Kelly Macdonald and Anjelica Huston. [AUG]
Babylon AD A sci-fi film starring Vin Diesel. Directed by Mathieu Kassovitz[AUG]
Space Chimps could be among the animated nominees? [JUL]
Meet Dave Eddie Murphy is a humanoid spaceship in this summer comedy. Visual effects? Or more likely nothing. Gabrielle Union and Elizabeth Banks are the girls. [JUL]
Untitled X Files Sequel visual effects technicals if they're VERY VERY lucky [JUL]
The Happening M Night Shyamalan has only found Oscar glory once (The Sixth Sense) but you never know. He probably just needs to refind an appreciate audience and critics again. Which might be tough since he keeps doing the "twist" and keeps co-starring both of which people have tired of. Mark Wahlberg and Zooey Deschanel star in this paranoid thriller [JUN]
Street Kings Keanu Reeves returns as a tough LAPD officer. Co-starring Keanu Reeves, Forest Whitaker, Common and Hugh Laurie. Directed by the writer of Training Day, written by James Ellroy (the novelist behind LA Confidential) and among others[APRIL]
Deception This is that previously untitled and title changed Hugh Jackman Ewan McGregor sex club thriller. Co-starring Michelle Williams and Maggie Q [APRIL]
Nim's Island A family adventure tale starring Abigail Breslin, Jodie Foster and Gerard Butler [APRIL]
Horton Hears a Who could be among the animated nominees[MAR]Delayed From God Knows When...
Margaret Kenneth Lonergan's follow up to his stellar debut (You Can Count on Me) has been sitting on the shelf for awhile. That's usually a bad sign of something be it lack of studio faith, marketability concerns or quality perceptions. It's about a bus accident witnessed by a subsequently troubled young woman (Anna Paquin). It’ll be good to see Paquin with a challenging role again. The supporting cast includes Matt Damon, Mark Ruffalo, J. Smith-Cameron, Matthew Broderick and Jea Reno and Juno's Allison Janney and Olivia Thirlby. Here's hoping they finally release this thing. Let us see it! [TBA]
LIONS GATE
Lions Gate’s seems to be primarily interested in horror films these days so we'll skip them this year.
MIRAMAX
Last Year: The dominant studio last year with both There Will Be Blood AND No Country For Old Men --pretty sweet, huh?
Recent Oscar Success: The Diving Bell and Butterfly, The Queen
Halfway House: Gone Baby Gone, Venus, Tsotsi
Didn't Pan Out (At Least Oscar-Wise): Proof, Breaking and Entering, Becoming Jane, The LookoutThe one time annual powerhouse no longer has the Weinsteins but has been doing very well for itself since changing hands, albeit often partnered in its successes --No Country and Blood both with Paramount Vantage.
MVP Guesstimate
Doubt The adaptation of the awards-magnetized play about an alleged child molestation by a priest will undoubtedly draw attention for its acting ensemble which includes Meryl Streep, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Amy Adams and Viola Davis. But can John Patrick Shanley (its writer/director) cinematize it enough to make it a major player in other categories, too? If it grabs audiences in theaters the way it did onstage where it was the talk of the town, it could even be a threat to win. [DEC]wildcard
Blindness This adaption of the famous novel by José Saramago is about a white sickness epidemic which renders everyone blind. Civilization starts to crumble. Stars Julianne Moore, Mark Ruffalo and Gael Garcia Bernal. Directed by Fernando Meirelles (City of God, The Constant Gardener). Could go all the way to the best picture circle if its as potent as the novel. But it's pretty damn bleak. Will they go for bleak two years in a row? [OCT]
also
Happy-Go-Lucky Mike Leigh is well loved by Oscar voters (Secrets & Lies, Topsy Turvy, and Vera Drake) and with good reason, too. Can he win their hearts a fourth time? [TBA]
Brideshead Revisited is an adaptation of the famous novel that has already been adapted for television. This version is from Julian Jarrold (Becoming Jane, Kinky Boots) and stars Emma Thompson, Matthew Goode, Ben Whishaw, Hayley Atwell, Greta Scacchi and Michael Gambon [TBA]
Adventureland Greg Mottola (superbad) returns directing Jesse Eisenberg (Squid and the Whale) as a recent college grad who takes a job at an amusement park. Co-starring Ryan Reynolds, Kristen Stewart and Kristen Wiig. [AUG]
Smart People a contemporary comedy with Dennis Quaid, Ellen Page and Sarah Jessica Parker [APR]
NEWLINE / PICTUREHOUSE
New Line has recently closed up shop and I haven't heard much about what's happened to Picture house. But this year releases include the remake of The Women (with Meg Ryan in the Norma Shearer role, Annette Bening in the Rosalind Russell role and Eva Mendes in the Joan Crawford role), The Time Traveler's Wife (with Eric Bana and Rachel McAdams) and Mei Lanfang from Chen Kaige (Farewell My Concubine) a biopic about a famous Asian opera star.
