2008
EARLY BIRD OSCAR GUESSWORK
by
Nathaniel R
pg1 (Columbia through Newline) / pg 2 (Paramount through Warner Bros)
pg 3 current calendar / pg 4 OSCAR PREDIX
PARAMOUNT / PARAMOUNT VANTAGE
Last Year: There Will Be Blood AND No Country For Old Men (both with Miramax)
Recent Oscar Success: Babel, Dreamgirls, Letters From Iwo Jima
Halfway House: Sweeney Todd, Collateral, Transformers, Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events
Didn't Pan Out (At Least Oscar-Wise): Sweeney Todd, Beowulf, Things We Lost in the Fire, Zodiac, World Trade Center, Alfie, War of the Worlds,
MVP Guesstimate
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button David Fincher (Se7en, Fight Club, Zodiac) is pushing the envelope in this F Scott Fitzgerald adaptation starring Brad Pitt as a man who ages backwards. Co-starring Tilda Swinton, Jason Flemyng, Elias Koteas, Julia Ormond, Cate Blanchett, Taraja P Henson and Elle Fanning. Will this finally be the film to bring Fincher his first directorial nomination. If so it's been a long time in coming. [DEC]
wildcards
Defiance Edward Zwick has been trying to make it all the way to the Best Picture circle for some time. He's usually in the halfway house category with films like Glory and Blood Diamond which receive hugs but not the full embrace from Oscar voters. This time he tells the true story of three Jewish brothers who fought against the Nazis in the Belarussian forest. Starring Daniel Craig, Liev Schreiber and Jamie Bell. [FALL TBA]
Revolutionary Road Sam Mendes (American Beauty) reunites the Titanic cast (Kate Winslet, Leonardo DiCaprio and Kathy Bates) in this adaptation of the classic novel about a marriage on the rocks that takes place in the 50s . It's probably the film that most people view as the surest thing. But sure things are abotu 50/50 with Oscar. It sure looks pretty though (from early set stills). [DEC]also
The Duchess Keira Knightley and Ralph Fiennes [SEPT]
Kung Fu Panda Animated nominee? [JUN]
The Love Guru Mike Myers comedy [JUN]
Iron Man You can usually count on at least a couple of the summer blockbusters to produce technical nominations. Will this be the one? [MAY]
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Or maybe this one? A return to the franchise that's already produced 14 nominations and several wins? All three of the previous installments have received multiple nominations. [MAY]
Cloverfield Another in the long line of 'let's destroy NYC fantasies' already won big at the big box office. [JAN]
The Marc Pease Experience Jason Schwartzmann is living in the past of his high school glories in this comey with Ben Stiller and Anna Kendrick [TBA]delayed from 2007
Son of Rambow: A Home Movie Garth Jennings might have a true crowd pleaser on his hands. This fest fav is about two young boys, a video camera and a pirated copy of Rambo. Could be a minor arthouse hit [Jul]
Stop Loss Kimberly Peirce (Boys Dont Cry) guides a young who's who of Hollywood through this drama about soldiers home from the Iraq war [MAR]
TOUCHSTONE/DISNEY/PIXAR
Not a big player outside the animated category.This year we'll see Bedtime Stories an Adam Shankman (Hairspray) comedy stars Adam Sandler as a man whose bedtime stories come true. Co-starring Keri Russell, Courteney Cox and Guy Pearce. Visual effects finalist? Could be [DEC] and WALL-E from Pixar. You can reserve them a spot in the animated lineup. As per ... always. [JUN] A wildcard prospect? Touchstone's Miracle at St. Anna a Spike Lee joint that's also a WWII drama (ding. ding. ding. Oscar loves them) about four black soldiers. It's set in Italy and based on the novel by James McBride. Starring Derek Kluke, Laz Alonso, Michael Ealy, John Turturro, and DB Sweeney [OCT]
UNIVERSAL
Last Year: minor nominations. But The Bourne Ultimatum did well on Oscar night.
Recent Oscar Success: The Bourne Ultimatum, The Black Dahlia, Children of Men, Munich, United 93
Halfway House: American Gangster, Elizabeth: The Golden Age,
Didn't Pan Out (At Least Oscar-Wise): Charlie Wilson's War, The Good Shepherd, Miami Vice, The Producers, Knocked UpAs I said last year, Universal has the rare gift of snagging lone nominations here or there even when by and large people don't like the film at all: see Black Dahlia and Good Shepherd and Golden Age. What's up this year?
MVP Guesstimate
Frost/Nixon Oscar winner Ron Howard (A Beautiful Mind) directs the adaptation of TONY winning play about an interview conducted with Richard Nixon post Watergate. Frank Langella seems like a likely Best Actor candidate but beyond that? Can Ron Howard open it up? Is Oscar done with him? Is this A Beautiful Mind Deux and what's with the June release date? I'm not complaining about a drama opening in the summer. Believe me, I'm not. I want variety all year round. It's just that it's not Hollywood's way anymore [JUN]
wildcard
Changeling Clint Eastwood, no stranger to AMPAS's good graces, directs this period mystery starring Angelina Jolie as a mother whose kidnapped son is returned to her. But she doesn't think the boy that comes back is the same. Cue eery music. It sounds very genre.... but will the dramatic heft and period setting conquer those pesky genre trappings with Oscar? Co-starring John Malkovich and Amy Ryan [NOV]
also
The Tale of the Despereaux an animated film about a rat, a mouse, a princess and a servant girl [DEC]
The Express Inspirational sports biopic/drama about the first black man to win the Heisman Trophy. Starring Rob Brown as the football star. [OCT]
City of Ember A fantasy adventure starring Bill Murray and Saoirse Ronan in a magical city of glittering lights. Technical nods? It's directed by Gil Kenan. This is his sophomore effort after the well received animated film Monster House. [OCT]
The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor Good lord. Another one? [AUG]
Mamma Mia! Meryl Streep tries for a second summer blockbuster comedy in this ABBA musical still packing them in onstage after many years [JUL]
Hellboy 2: The Golden Army The first film didn't even get a makeup nodwith Oscar favorite Rick Baker doing the work on the earlier picture. Weird. [JUL]
The Incredible Hulk They've dumped Ang Lee who gave them too much angst for Louis Leterrier (of Transporter fame) in the director's seat. Ed Norton and Liv Tyler replace Eric Bana and Jennifer Connelly as the man/monster and his girl. Tim Roth does villain duties [JUN]
Wanted Angelina Jolie and Morgan Freeman convince James McAvoy to become a firearm badass in this would be blockbuster directed by Timur Bekmambetov ( of NightWatch fame --at least it'll probably look groovy). [JUN]
Forgetting Sarah Marshall A comedy from Nicholas Stoller starring Jason Segel and Kristen Bell. [APR]
Baby Mama Tina Fey and Amy Poehler star in this surrogate comedy. [APR]
Little Big Men A comedy from David Wain (Wet Hot American Summer) starring Paul Rudd, Sean William Scott and Elizabeth Banks [TBA]
Hippie Hippie Shake a biopic from Beeban Kidron () about counterculturalist Richard Neville in 60s London. StarringCillian Murphy, Derek Jacobi and Sienna Miller [TBA]
Brüno Sacha Baron Cohen takes his Austrian fashionista character to the bigscreen in this comedy. [TBA]Delayed from last year
Leatherheads George Clooney directs himself and Renée Zellweger in a romantic comedy set in the world of 1920s football. [APR]WARNER BROS / WARNER INDIE
Last Year: Michael Clayton was their top draw, just as I predicted.
Recent Oscar Success: The Departed, Good Night and Good Luck, Million Dollar Baby
Halfway House: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, In the Valley of Elah, North Country, Syriana, Batman Begins
Didn't Pan Out (At Least Oscar-Wise): The Brave One, 300, The Good German, For Your Consideration, The Painted Veil, The FountainThis huge company has turned into a dependable major force this decade. So, it's smart to keep an eye on there lineup. The problem is that they release so many movies each year, it's tough to predict which will rise to the top. They're helping out with Curious Case of Benjamin Button this year... but here are their own potential entries in various Oscar derbies
MVP Guesstimate
Body of Lies Ridley Scott (Gladiator, American Gangster) turns 70 this year but he still isn't slowing down when it comes to making movies. This is based on a novel and it's about a journalist hired to track down Al Qaeda. This will be his fourth film with Russell Crowe who will also be starring in his next project for 2009. Co-Starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Dutch sensation Carice van Houten [OCT]
Possibilities
Gran Turino Clint Eastwood just announced another directing/starring in project. This one. So of course he's going to rush and have it ready for December. That man, I swear. There's not enough gold statues in the world. [DEC]
Yes Man Maybe it's a mistake that I'm still taking Peyton Reed so seriously based totally on Bring it On and Down With Love but I think he has an auteur in him even if he's working the completely mall-based projects that make him appear otherwise. That's my story. This is a Jim Carrey comedy about a man who says "yes" to everything for a year. [DEC]
Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince the sixth Harry Potter feature. Yes, we're already at #6. They sometimes get stray art direction nominations. Jim Broadbent is the new edition to the cast as Slughorn. [NOV]
Nights in Rodanthe George C Wolfe who is best known for directing stage work but who has also done acclaimed TV films is reuniting Unfaithful stars Richard Gere and Diane Lane for another extramarital affair drama. Will lightning strike twice for Lane? [OCT]
Star Wars: The Clone Wars Animated [AUG]
The Dark Knight A sequel to Batman Begins. The Batman franchise has been known to snag surprise nominations now and then. Some pundits want to talk up a posthumous supporting actor nod for Heath Ledger who will probably be strong in the film but if Michelle Pfeiffer couldn't manage any traction whatsoever for a completely classic turn that people still unaninmously rave about 15 years later (Batman Returns) ... well, it'd be a surprising development. All things considered though, if anything could finally beat the curse of superhero performances not being taken seriously even when they're unarguably brilliant it would have to do so through some other baggage being attached. This would qualify so we probably shouldn't rule it out [JUL]
Get Smart An adaptation of the TV sitcom with Steve Carrel and Anne Hathaway as the agents. [JUN]
Speed Racer The Academy has frowned on all CGI stuff in the past (note the lack of Sin City or 300 technical nods... but at some point they'll give. It's a new world out there. This is based on the famous cartoon. Starring Emile Hirsch and Christina Ricci. Directed by the Wachowski Bros. [MAY]
Funny Games Michael Haneke's remake of his own film. With Tim Roth and Naomi Watts [MAR]
Snow Angels David Gordon Green's dark ensemble of grieving parents [MAR]
10,000 BC I just wanted to laugh as I typed this. But then again you never know. Sometimes terrible movies snag technical nods[MAR]
The Box Richard Kelly's (Donnie Darko) new horror project. [TBA]
WEINSTEIN COMPANY
The former Miramaxers haven't managed any Oscar triumphs for their new company. They had trouble with I'm Not There last year (one nomination, no win) and couldn't get any traction for John Cusack in Grace is Gone. And they're still attempting one week qualifiers despite that tactic not working well the past few years. Their Oscar viable slate looks miniscule this year but you never know. The only good on paper prospect? There's three. First up is The Reader. Stephen Daldry is well regarded by Oscar voters for The Hours and Billy Elliott. But will he finish this in time. He's known to take his time. The WW II focused picture deals with the investigation of past war crimes. It stars Ralph Fiennes and Kate Winslet (in flashbacks presumably) as the object of his obsession. Second is Vicky Christina Barcelona, Woody Allen's latest which stars Javier Bardem, Penelope Cruz, Scarlet Johansson. But even if the movie is as fun as it sounds in descriptions and cast names and of sufficient Match Point quality will they know how to sell it to Oscar? Lastly, they've got Rian Johson's follow up to Brick known as The Brothers Bloom, a con-artist pictre with Rachel Weisz, Adrien Brody and Mark Ruffalo.
Box Office might shine on Zack and Miri Make a Porno the new Kevin Smith comedy with rising stars Seth Rogen and Elizabeth Banks. The Weinsteins have also got Carice Van Houten in an English language thriller called Dorothy Mills, the Jackie Chan/Jet Li action pic The Forbidden Kingdom, the French sci-fi thriller Dante 01 from Marc Caro (of Delicatessen fame), two high profile docs in Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired (which I've seen. It's good) and Where in the World is Osama Bin Laden from Super Size Me's Morgan Spurlock. They have an animated picture Igor. And finally there's Wayne Kramer (The Cooler)'s ensemble picture Crossing Over with a big cast including Sean Penn, Harrison Ford, Ray Liotta, Cliff Curtis, Ashley Judd, Alice Braga and Summer Bishil
OTHER COMPANIES or DISTRIBUTION STILL IN PLAY
Films which have uncertain distribution plans or will likely get small releases but could have Oscar nomination elements.
Synecdoche New York Charlie Kauffman (screenwriter of Being John Malkovich) directs Phillip Seymour Hoffman and a bevy of great actresses in this NY set theater story [TBA]
Lake City Sissy Spacek and Troy Garity star in this drama about a mother and son and a family tragedy. [TBA]
Valkyrie Bryan Singer's WW II epic about a plot to kill Hitler stars Tom Cruise and Carice van Houten. From [MGM/UA / OCT]
Hounddog The controversial Dakota Fanning moviethat played at Sundance in 2007. [TBA]
Savage Grace Tom Kalin (Swoon) directs the great Julianne Moore in the first role that’s sounded worthy of her specific talents in a good long while. She plays a doomed socialite who is too invested in her son and too distant from her husband. [IFC -MAY]
The Young Victoria Jean Marc Vallee's (C.R.A.Z.Y.) period biopic about the turbulent life of a young queen. Starring Emily Blunt and a delicious supporting cast too [TBA]
Brothers Jim Sheridan remakes Susanne Bier's film about a soldier (Tobey Maguire) who goes missing in Afghanistan and his wife (Natalie Portman) and brother (Jake Gyllenhaal) who grieve together at home. [TBA]
The Other Man Richard Eyre (Notes on a Scandal) is directing Liam Neeson as a suspicious husband. Laura Linney is the wife and maybe she's having an affair with Antonio Banderas? Also starring Romola Garai [TBA]
Skin Anthony Fabian directs this true story of a black girl (Sophie Okonedo) born to white parents (Sam Neill and Alice Krige) during the Apartheid era in South Africa [TBA]
Nothing But the Truth Rod Lurie (The Contender) directs Kate Beckinsale and Vera Farmiga, Angela Bassett and David Schwimmer in this story of a female reporter who won't reveal her source [YARI FILM GROUP -SEPTEMBER]
Grey Gardens An adaptation of the famous documentary about eccentric cousins of Jackie Onassis. This is not based on the recent TONY winning Broadway musical of the same name. Drew Barrymore is Little Edie and Jessica Lange is Big Edie. Jeanne Tripplehorn plays Onassis. This is a directorial debut film for Michael Sucsy [TBA -NOV]
Elegy Ben Kingsley and Penelope Cruz star in this film about sexual obsession [MGM -JUNE]
Push is about an overweight single mom in Harlem who enrolls in a special experimental school. Directed by Lee Daniels (Shadowboxer) [TBA]
Flight of the Red Balloon Starring Juliette Binoche [IFC -APRIL]
Two Lovers -James Gray (We Own the Night) directs Joaquin Phoenix and Gwyneth Paltrow in this romantic drama [TBA]
Fireflies in the Garden -Julia Roberts, Willem Dafoe, Ryan Reynolds and Emily Watson are part of the ensemble in this family drama [TBA]
the Edge of Love -John Maybury (Love is the Devil) directs this story of a poet (Cillian Murphy) and the women who love him (Sienna Miller and Kiera Knightley) [TBA]
Sunshine Cleaning Emily Blunt and Amy Adams clean up crime scenes [OVERTURE -JULY... but it might be postponed we're hearing]Still Filming. Probably 2009 ... but you never know
Within the Whirlwind -This biopic drama about a famous poet in Russia (starring Emily Watson is still filming.[TBA]
The Countess Julie Delpy directs and stars in this period drama about a bloode bathing Hungarian woman of the famed Bathory family. [TBA]
Love Ranch Taylor Hackford directs his wife Helen Mirren as the owner of a brothel [TBA]
The Burning Plain Charlize Theron and Kim Basinger play daughter and mother in this heavy drama from Guillermo Arriaga
DISCUSS ON THE BLOG
If you see errors or omissions, please let me know. I am quite fallible.
current release schedule as of march 31st
as always: not only subject to change
but obviously will change
