OSCAR RACE 2007

commentary by Nathaniel R

days until Oscar Nomination are announced

 

Best Director - July 6th Predictions

07/06/08 What the hell. I'll go with the insane buzz now. Chris Nolan for a Batman film. You know it'll happen eventually, a superhero film with big ticket Oscar nods.

06/12/08
Shaking it up for fun. Two previous nominees. Three people who've been waiting too long for their first directorial nomination.

discuss @ THE BLOG


Nomination statistics reflect this category only

1
2
3
4
5
Gus Van Sant
Milk
55 years old
13 films / 1 nom / 0 wins
prev: 1,3
David Fincher
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
45 years old
7 films / 0 noms
prev: 2,1
Spike Lee
Miracle at St Anna

51 years old
18 films / 0 noms
prev 3,15
Baz Lurhmann
Australia
45 years old
4 films / 0 noms
prev: 5,2
Chris Nolan
The Dark Knight

37 years old
6 films / 0 noms

prev 8,14

Good Will Hunting remains something of an anomaly in his filmography. Will Milk finally bring him recognition for melding his more personal filmmaking with accessible Oscar-friendly fare?
He makes terrific films (Se7en, Zodiac, etcetera) and his work is visually rich even when it's not spectacular as a whole movie. Will Oscar finally nod their head in his direction?
No directorial nods for the man behind Malcolm X, Do the Right Thing and The 25th Hour? That just ain't right.
I'm predicting a switcheroo Oscar prob for Australia from Moulin Rouge! Director nod with no Picture shortlisting. Will this 4th film be as engaging as his first three?
It isn't only fanboys that love Nolan. One senses there is growing critical and industry respect for his filmography (Prestige, Memento, Insomnia, Batman Begins, etcetera...) This isn't as far-fetched as it sounds
         
Edward Zwick Defiance
55 years old
9 films / 0 noms
prev 6,12
Sam Mendes
Revolutionary Road

42 years old
4 films / 1 nom / 1 win

prev: 9,6
Clint Eastwood Changeling
78 years old
27 films / 4 noms / 2 wins
prev 4,10
John Patrick Shanley
Doubt

58 years old
2 films / 0 noms

prev 7,9
Woody Allen Vicky Christina Barcelona
72 years old
38 films / 6 noms / 1 win
prev 12, 19
He continually chooses Oscar baiting topics --usually wars or manly violence and honor of some sort (Glory, Blood Diamond, Courage Under Fire, etcetera) Will they finally give in to his pleading?
It'll be difficult for him to top his Oscar winning debut American Beauty but AMPAS threw nods to Road to Perdition too (not particularly Oscary in essense). Will RR be the prestige juggernaut people expect or less satisfying?
An Oscar default. Is the buzz for Changeling the real thing or a function of festival hype combined with no other mainstream prestige goodies having arrived just yet?
His only previous film, Joe Versus the Volcano, flopped but he's proved an awards magnet otherwise with an Oscar for Moonstruck's screenplay and Doubt's expanding trophy list. Is Oscar next?
Even when his films aren't BP noms they manage director and screenplay honors. Did Match Point (2005) get close to more than just that screenplay nod? If so any combeack momentum left?
 

Other Distinct Possibilities
13 Ron Howard Frost / Nixon prev 17,13
14 Mike Leigh Happy-Go-Lucky prev 16,16
15 Fernando Meirelles Blindness prev14, 4
16 Andrew Stanton Wall•E prev: UR
17
Joe Wright The Soloist prev 18,21
18 John Hillcoat The Road prev: 11, ur


Hmmmm?
19 Jim Sheridan Brothers prev 19,11
20 Stephen Daldry The Reader prev 20,8 (probably 2009)
21 Jean-Marc Vallée The Young Victoria prev 21,17
22 Oliver Stone W. prev: 22, UR
23
Clint Eastwood Gran Turino prev: UR
24 Jonathan Demme Rachel Getting Married prev24, 24
25
Richard Eyre The Other Man prev 23, 25

falling out: Bryan Singer Valkyrie prev 23 -moved to 2009 / / Charlie Kauffman Synecdoche New York prev 18 / Rian Johnson The Brothers Bloom prev 20, Stephen Frears Chéri prev: 15, UR maybe 2009 again, Chen Kaige Mei Lanfang prev 25, 22,

11
12
Ridley Scott
House of Lies

prev 13,7
Steven Soderbergh
The Argentine / Guerilla

45 years old 18 films / 2 noms / 1 win prev: 10,5
He's been winning respect, ink, and awards since his Sundance honored debut (Sex, Lies and Videotape) and the director's branch likes ambitious auteurs more than the general Oscar populace. What's up with the release?
prediction history

July: Fincher, Lee, Luhrmann, Nolan, Van Sant
June: Eastwood, Fincher, Lee, Luhrmann, Van Sant
April: Fincher, Luhrmann, Meirelles, Soderbergh, Van Sant

 

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