Awards
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'08 Golden Globe
Winners
by
Nathaniel R
That larger risk I took in predictions (switching away from a full endorsement of Slumdog to a halfhearted one to keep myself from falling asleep) did NOT pay off. The Golden Globes loved only Slumdog, John Adams, The Wrester & Kate Winslet (two wins!) with any resembling real passion.
Best Picture Drama
Danny Boyle's super violent "feelgood" (???) movie continues its winning streak. The Oscar isn't very far off because, let's be honest: If you sweep the precursors you win the Oscar. Unless your film is called Brokeback Mountain. It was never true (as people claimed at the time) that Oscar doesn't like to follow the precursors. They have no qualms voting for the same things that everyone else votes for.Frankly it feels like the only thing that could derail Slumdog's momentum was if the Best Picture race gets a major shock and shakeup from what we're all expecting when nominations are announced. That's very unlikely.
Predictions
I'm going with Benjamin Button since it seems to be succumbing to the snowballing power of Slumdog but might have had enough oomph when they voted. Though obviously Slumdog Millionaire is very possible as a winner.The Nominations
I scored 4/5 (but I allowed myself six guesses since sometimes they go overboard with number of nominees) I didn't expect all the love for The Reader (only in my alternates) and assumed more love than Milk and The Wrestler were able to muster from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Maybe Milk and The Wrestler are too quintessentially American for mass appeal, here?The big story of the Globes might just be that reinforced Benjamin Button's (arguable) frontrunner status and they saved Revolutionary Road after NBR and the BFCA ignored it. For just one year I'd love for all this drama to be about movies that had actually opened so the general public could play along (sigh)
Before the nominations I said...
Last year the Press Association went crazy in this category nominating 7 Films (7!!! Seriously make some rules to prevent that people, otherwise it just looks like desperation to please everyone... like, say, the National Board of Review) including "The Great Debaters" which didn't score anywhere else and hadn't opened when they announced. So, frankly, anything goes. I'm guessing 6 movies (in the order shown here in case there's just 5. I'm keeping it simple and assuming they go with a usual mix of Oscar likelies and/or cool movies with critical acclaim that might not translate to the big show at the Kodak (past nominees that might fall in that category include stuff like Mulholland Dr and A History of Violence... so I've thrown The Wrestler in. Why not?)I'm included five alternates (Rachel, Doubt, Changeling, Teh Reader, The Dark Knight) which also seem possible... but again. The Great Debaters last year. You just never know. It could be anything if they feel like mixing it up
Best Picture Comedy/Musical
I had a terrible prediction record this year for the Globes but I'm pleased to have forseen this one. The strange thing here: this comedy/musical list (save Mamma Mia!) is MUCH better than the drama list. Seriously, all four of these movies are better than anything in the Drama lineup. In fact, almost all of them are on my top ten list.
It's such a strong lineup that I would have been happy with any win (save Mamma Mia!) but it's nice to see a Woody Allen film take home a big prize again. It's been awhile.
Predictions
This is particularly hard to guess. On the one hand the Globes often embrace musicals but will they really give the top prize to Mamma Mia! ? It's so bad. Enjoyable to many moviegoers, sure. But very very bad as far as filmmaking goes. You could also make a case for Happy-Go-Lucky since it has been on an upswing with critics awards. But the Globes aren't a critics organization. I'm throwing up my hands and guessing Vicky Cristina Barcelona just because Woody movies haven't won anything in a long time and why not now that he's made two very well regarded films in the past few years.The nominations
I scored 3/5 here (I messed up with Cadillac Records assuming the musical portion would help it in this often weird category and Sex & the City which the Globes have always loved --it didn't even manage an actress nomination. Strange). But this is a lineup that they can be pretty proud about. I'm especially proud of them for recognizing In Bruges which is a terrific well scripted and acted dark comedy. It opened all the way back in February so good on the Globes for having better memories than any other awards group to date.
Before the nominations I said
The Globes are so hard to predict... on account of all the wacky choices they make. Especially in this category (which is why I'm going with Cadillac Records which is totally current but, from what I've heard, less worthy than say Happy-Go-Lucky). I'm horrified to think of the sloppy Mamma Mia! being regarded as a "Best" anything... but it was a global hit and many many many many many many many many many many many people think it's fun. And lord knows the Globes like to have fun. Which is half of why we love them so one shouldn't complain too much when it comes to the musical/comedy categories. Complaints are even less welcome in years in which they choose to put the dramas where they belong and keep the comedy/musicals actually in play... which is apparently what's happened this year with all the "dramedies" going Drama. There's no category fraud this year for the comedy/musicals.I'm not confident about the top five choices but if you bunch my alternates and my predictions together I am. I think your five nominees come from these 9 films.
Best Actor Drama
Revolutionary Road
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost / Nixon
Milk
The WrestlerMickey Rourke's win was such a happy moment and the speech was great. Good television. (Why wasn't Sean there? Is it because Milk got the shaft from the Globes in almost every way?) That tribute to his dogs both living and dead was just ... gah. What a performance and what a nice moment this was at the Globes. Bonus Points to Darren Aronofsky for flipping him off during his big speech.
I love this movie.
The Predictions
I think that Mickey Rourke is quite possible as a winner but I'm going with the frontrunner Sean Penn. I can't take a risk in every category.The Nominations
I scored 4/5 here. I was happy to be wrong on the mistake (I had Eastwood instead of Pitt) but I'm still said for Richard Jenkins. If he could have managed this nomination at the movie star loving Globes... he would have been good to go for Oscar. Nonetheless this is a good lineup with nothing embarrassing in it. I would LOVE for the Globes to go out on a limb and give this prize to Mickey Rourke (they're probably the only group that would have the guts to do so) but I suspect DiCaprio or Penn will take it (also fine performances so no biggie).Before the nominations I guessed
I'm just guessing my Oscar predictions minus Richard Jenkins The Visitor and putting Clint Eastwood Gran Torino in his place. Skipping Brad Pitt is weird, I know --if anyone is going to nominate our beloved Brad this year, won't it be the Globes? If the Globes really surprise maybe they'll include both of the Frost/Nixon stars, making room for Michael Sheen?Final note: Jenkins probably isn't glittery enough for the star-loving Globes. But IF he manages it, ink him onto your Oscar ballots right now. So sayeth I.
Best Actor Comedy/Musical
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
In Bruges
Pineapple Express
Last Chance Harvey
In BrugesAnd another thing to be happy about: My favorite of these nominated performances won. The Comedy/Musical field was where it was at this year at the Globes. That isn't always the case, so, hurrah!
Farrel was visibly moved and if I had remembered how much of a personal life clean up he'd been attempting for the past year I definitely would have predicted him. But I kind of forgot, since I'm not a big gossip follower.
The Predictions
I love this race because I can imagine any of them winning really. I think a Franco win would be interesting, a Hoffman win plausible if they're feeling sentimental, or an In Bruges win very satisfying. But in the end I'm going with double wins for lovebirds Javier Bardem & Cruz, both for Vicky Cristina BarcelonaThe Nominations
Oops. I scored only 2/5 here seeing only Bardem and Hoffman coming. I assumed two acting nods for Tropic Thunder (I was right about that but I had them in the wrong category and I was only half right on the cast members ;) but I am THRILLED to be so wrong because they honored both of the stars of In Bruges and that was a superb acting debut. I'm also happy to see James Franco here based solely on what I've heard about the performance. I really must see it.Before the nominations I said
This is even emptier than Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical. I have NO idea what they'll do. Aside from my predictions above (wild guesses... Downey Jr might be placed in "supporting") they could always go Harrison Ford (Indiana Jones), Steven Coogan (Hamlet 2), Michael Cera (Nick & Norah's...), Gerard Butler (RocknRolla), James Franco or Seth Rogen (Pineapple Express), Sam Rockwell (Choke) or Jim Carrey (Yes Man) instead. Should be interesting.
Best Actress Drama
Rachel Getting Married
Changeling
I've Loved You So Long
Doubt
Revolutionary RoadWill Kate continue on to Oscar from here? Or is it still between Hathaway and Streep as the BFCA suggested? Does anyone outside of the HFPA really like Revolutionary Road? Here's the excellent positive point of this three way race though: Whoever wins the Oscar will give us a great moment: Hathaway, Streep and Winslet are all very charming, deserving, witty and smart women.
The Prediction
There was some internet scuttlebut about the HFPA accidentally posting a star (their winner symbol) by Anne Hathaway's name yesterday. But as someone who makes a lot of errors in web updates I can assure you that sometimes glitches like that signify nothing. Someone could have inputted the wrong image, hit a wrong key or even put the image by the wrong name befor publishing and then removing it since no winner should have been announced anyway.This is a long way of saying that we don't know who won yet (despite this html error) but I was going to guess Anne Hathaway anyway ;)
The Nominations
I scored 5/5 here and even though I was nervous about leaving Blanchett off the roster (given Globe loyalty to their favorite stars) I'm less surprised than many pundits. Benjamin Button just isn't really an actor's showcase --not that everyone doesn't do good work in it. They do. It's just that as a movie, it's not really about the performances. Certainly not in the way these five nominated films above are. Rachel Getting Married, Changeling, I've Loved You So Long, Doubt and Revolutionary Road: definitely actor's showcases. Whether or not they're all worthy of being showcased is a topic for another time. ;)Before the nominations I said
This race is particularly fascinating. You can probably count on Melissa Leo (Frozen River) because with 7 dramatic performances still hoping for Oscar nods, they aren't going to go with the smallest name among those seven. But that still leaves six titans and only five spots. It's probably foolish to leave out Cate Blanchett in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button --they definitely love her but I couldn't figure out who to drop. There's probably no denying Streep or Winslet. They love rising starlets (hi, Anne!). And they LOOOOOVVVEE Angelina Jolie more than just about anybody in Hollywood loves Angelina. They don't love her quite as much as maybe Brad Pitt but otherwise, by god they love her. She's won 3 Globes already. If she is snubbed here consider her Oscar nomination hopes done. Period. Kaput. Finito. Nobody loves her more than the Globes. So if anyone makes room for Cate it's probably Kristin Scott Thomas. On the other hand, KST looks like the type of critically acclaimed still basically famous performer that they'd usually reach out to even if Oscar nominationm hopes were looking slim which they aren't.Maybe they'll expand the category to six to make sure they don't deny Cate... ???? We shall see. These are the only six that seem likely. BUT the Globes have been known to surprise. Remember their choices in 2003 and 2005? So I suppose it's possible they could throw Knightley (The Duchess) or Kidman (Australia) a bone. If they do surprise the snubs and not the inclusions will be the major talking points here.
Best Actress Comedy/Musical
Happy-Go-Lucky
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Burn After Reading
Mamma Mia!
Last Chance Harvey
Every time I forget to try and be more like Poppy from Happy-Go-Lucky I regret it. So I should have been optimistic and predicted a Hawkins win. She was most deserving. You should listen to my interview with Sally Hawkins. She was great fun to talk to.
The Predictions
Though Sally Hawkins is the critical leader and probably the most likely in all actuality, I could see the Globe folks wanting to give Streep yet another win (they adore her and her speeches makes good television) for what was a very successful year. So I'm going to say Meryl Streep. Am I crazy?The Nominations
I scored only 3/5 here (I missed Hall and McDormand though I heartily enjoyed both performances) and I was even wrong about who was "locked". Oops. Incidentally, I believe Meryl Streep's double nomination here --bringing her to 23 Globe nominations is now an all time record... either that or she's tied with Jack Lemmon. Someone help me out here.Before the nominations I said
Outside of Hawkins, Streep, and Parker are all locked up tight given how empty the category is. I suspect we'll also see Thompson here even though her film got quiet right after it's December release caused a split second frenzy. Practically anything goes in that fifth spot. They might opt to include Streep's co-star Amanda Seyfried (Mamma Mia!). They might go with performers they have a particular endless fascination for, that'd be either Renée Zellweger (Leatherheads) or Scarlett Johansson (Vicky Cristina Barcelona -my prediction) but really anything goes... They might just want a household name: Reese Witherspoon (Four Christmases), Cameron Diaz (What Happens in Vegas) or Jennifer Aniston (Marley & Me) to show up. There's still more options...
If they decide they're "leads": Beyoncé (Cadillac Records), Frances McDormand (Burn After Reading)
If they want a recognizable star people on the red carpet: Amy Adams or Frances McDormand (Miss Pettigrew), Tina Fey or Amy Poehler (Baby Mama), Katharine Heigl (27 Dresses), Meg Ryan (The Women)
Seems especially unlikely but if they really want new awards show blood: Anna Faris (The House Bunny) Jess Wexler (Teeth), Elizabeth Banks (Zach and Miri), Kat Dennings (Nick & Norah's...)
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