Oscar Best Picture Candidates 2008

OSCAR RACE 2007
commentary by Nathaniel R

days until Oscar Nomination are announced

Best Picture - July 6th Predictions
July 6th I've suddenly gone off of Doubt... maybe it was the lack of buzz or new photos or the move back to December. (December glut. blah) But my mind was flooded with sudden remembrance of Proof and other frankly amazing stage plays that didn't quite work -- or didn't work at all -- once they made it to the silver screen. Still, given the previous awards magnetism of both stage to film offerings this year (Doubt and Frost/Nixon) I imagine that one of them will be successful. But which? For now I'm sitting this one out. Other reconsiderations: A lot of people think WALL•E could rally for the second ever Best Picture nod for an animated film (the first being Beauty & The Beast in 1991) . But if that's going to happen why not The Dark Knight for Best Picture? There's a first time for everything and given the way the superhero genre has completely taken over the cinema, eventually the Academy will come around. I mean, nobody ever thought a fantasy film with elves and sorcery and dwarves would win the top prize prior to The Lord of the Rings trilogy. discuss on THE BLOG

1	2	3	4	5
Milk d. Van Sant Focus -12/05 prev: 2,3	Curious Case of Benjamin Button d. Fincher Paramount / Warner Bros -12/19 prev: 3,1	Australia d. Luhrmann Fox -11/14 prev: 6,5	Miracle at St. Anna d. Lee Touchstone -9/26 prev: 4,20	Defiance d. Zwick Paramount -12/12 prev: 5,7
Why? Oscar loves a biopic and Gus Van Sant, if he can become accessible again while delivering art, could hit their sweet spot Why not? Gay!	Why? The story is fascinating and it's about time that David Fincher (Se7en, Zodiac) was recognized by this group Why not? Could be too quirky for them	Why? There's nobody quite like Baz and maybe Oscar will want a gorgeous romantic epic this year. Why not? Baz is idiosyncratic and voters are sometimes skittish with the unfamiliar. Romantic epics are tricky to pull off	Why? WW II story that hasn't been told often. Manly... and Oscar prefers that to women's pictures. Why not? A Lee picture has never made the shortlist ... not for lack of quality	Why? WW II story that hasn't been told often. Manly... and Oscar prefers that to women's pictures. Why not? A Zwick picture has never made the shortlist ... not for lack of bait

6	7	8	9	10
Revolutionary Road d. Mendes Paramount -12/26 DEC prev: 8,8	Doubt d. Shanley Miramax - Dec prev: 1,2	Changeling d. Eastwood Universal -10/24 prev: 7,13	Frost/Nixon d. Ron Howard Universal -Dec prev: 16,12	The Dark Knight d. Nolan Warner Bros -July prev: 23,18
Why? Classic novel. Titanic cast reunited. Moving drama? Why not? Might it be beautiful but hard to love like Mendes' last two pictures? Marital dramas are often easier bets for acting/writing	Why? The play has already proven itself a true blue awards magnet. Name the prize. It's won it. Why not? Can it make the transfer with its water cooler power intact?	Why? They love Clint Eastwood like people love money, mice love cheese, Brad loves Angie... Period drama. Cannes buzz Why not? Heat of moment hype or sustainable buzz ? Will early detractors grow in numbers?	Why? Ron Howard is right in their wheelhouse. The source material is previously lauded. They like true stories. Why not? Could play too stagey if they're all not careful. Can the film, a long conversation, feel energized	Why? The Academy has previously noticed the Batman franchise. Heath Ledger's legacy and Chris Nolan's ascendance and the dominance of this genre at the theaters should help its cause Why not? It usually takes AMPAS a while to catch up
		Other Possibilities (It's Only July...) 13 Happy Go Lucky d. Leigh Miramax -9/26 prev: 11,11 14 Vicky Christina Barcelona (Weinstein Co) prev: 19,24 Eventually they'll reembrace Woody, won't they? 15 Blindness (Miramax) prev: 14,4 preachy bad or messagey good the way Oscar likes? 16 The Soloist (Dreamworks SKG) prev: 17,15 good bait or bait overload? 17 The Argentine / Guerilla (Focus) prev: 15,10 release plans? 18 "W." d. Stone Lionsgate -Oct. prev: 12,-- 19 The Road d. Hillcoat Dimension -11/26 prev: 10, -- 20 Gran Turino prev: UR 21 The Young Victoria (TBA) prev: 25,16 Release plans? 22 Rachel Getting Married formerly Dancing With Shiva (SPC) prev: 18,23 Dramedies are tricky. If they pull it off... 23 The Visitor (now playing) prev: unranked 24 Brothers (TBA) prev: 21,14 Why no buzz? 25 The Reader (Weinstein Co) prev: 22,6 Moving to 2009? falling out: Synecdoche, New York (TBA) prev: 17 * Skin (TBA) prev: 19 * The Other Man (TBA) prev: 22* Chéri (Miramax/Weinstein) prev: 13,-- (staying in 2009) * Seven Pounds (Columbia/Sony) prev: 20,21 Pursuit of Happyness 2: Bait Harder!
11	12
WALL-E d. Stanton Pixar -June prev: 24,UR	House of Lies (formerly Body of Lies) d. Scott Warner Bros - 10/10 prev: 9,9
Why? It's already beloved and talked up as something that should be nominated. Momentum means a lot and Pixar's stock just keeps rising Why not? Has its own category. The year is young	Why? Ridley Scott is a regular Oscar presence. There's usually something contemporary in the mix. Big stars so it's sure to get ample attention by avoiding December Why not? Perhaps it'll do well but fall short like Gangster?
prediction history
July: Australia, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Defiance, Milk, Miracle at St. Annas June: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Defiance, Doubt, Milk, Miracle at St. Annas April: Australia, Blindness, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Milk previous notes: 06/01/08 Doubt and Milk I feel strongly about, in terms of Oscar chances. Otherwise it's a toss up with my crystal ball feeling exceptionally foggy. Hey, it's only June. Changeling and Happy-Go-Lucky are the only members of the top 12 that people have seen so naturally their buzz is strong right now. But sustainable? Australia and Benjamin Button seem both Oscary and not-Oscary-at-all depending on how one looks at the Academy's views about stylized affairs. As for the two WW II pictures I've raised up into the prediction shortlist (Defiance and Miracle at St. Anna ...for now). I'm just having a spot of fun. Both Spike Lee and Edward Zwick... two directors of very different temperaments and filmographies have never made Oscar's Best Picture list despite baity and/or acclaimed award winning work in the past. Could these World War II dramas finally end their long long waits? Martin Scorsese finally won two years back. Paul Thomas Anderson managed a Best Picture nomination for the first time last year. Is Oscar extending more olive branches this year to artistically fascinating or patiently Oscar-baiting filmmakers? 04/01/08 I've opted to go with five pictures that I'm actually looking forward to seeing. Wishful thinking is a death knell in normal predicting, but a year in advance one prestige picture is just as likely as another. So, I'm staying positive... for now. Obviously some of these pictures might actually be disappointing or even bad. But we won't know until the Fall now, will we? Will Edward Zwick (Last Samurai, Blood Diamond and other offenses) finally wear down Oscar's defenses with his continual pleas full of bait? This year, a WW II war film called Defiance is his tactic. I'd have more faith in The Reader too but for the Weinstein Co releasing it and rumors that it might be delayed. Revolutionary Road looks beautiful and the cast is strong... can Sam Mendes return to the shortlist for the first time since American Beauty? Ridley Scott got some traction last year for American Gangster so he'll try again this year with another manly drama --this one on the CIA and starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe. And finally what the heck to make of Steven Soderbergh's two-part Che Guevera film? I don't know. I'm counting it as one film even though it's two. Predicting purists can assume I mean to say just The Argentine the first one... since I have more faith that that one will come out within the calendar year (though both might obviously)

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