OSCAR RACE 2008
commentary by Nathaniel R

days until Oscar Nomination are announced

 

Best Original Screenplay - July 7th Predictions

07/7 minor adjustments to rank and a couple of early releases (The Visitor and In Bruges) that are often praised for their screenplays.

06/11 limited changes at this point but the Cannes reception of Changeling and Synechdoche New York prompted a switcheroo for me in terms of their Oscarability. Cannes crowds are more likely to appreciate something like Synechdoche so if people thought it was a little too dense or inaccessible or 'saved by its actors' I'm not so sure about Oscar prospects. Still can't wait to see it though. Love Charlie Kauffman's work.

04/01/08 I've one with only one predicted Best Picture nominee here (Milk) mostly because it's a heavily adaptation friendly year. Or so it appears from a distance. Woody Allen is nominated for almost 30% of his screenplays so... why not?

Discuss on the blog
nomination statistics reflect this category only

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2
3
4
5
Happy-Go- Lucky
 Mike Leigh
3 nominations
prev: 1,2
Vicky Christina Barcelona
Woody Allen
14 noms / 2 wins
prev: 2,5
Changeling
J Michael Straczynski
(never nominated) prev: 3,8
Milk
Dustin Lance Black
never nominated
prev: 4,4
Rachel Getting Married
 Jenny Lumet
never nominated
prev: 5,3
Selling point: Mike Leigh and his organic actor-boosted storytelling
Selling point: Oscar's most beloved screenwriter
Selling point: Ambition. It reportedly covers a wide canvas of topic, character and story
Selling point:
Undeniably moving and potent if its done well
Selling point:
Dramedies can be memorably zingy if the script and performances are strong. Are they?

Contenders
8 Australia Lurhmann, Harwood, Beatty and Flanagan prev: 6, 7
9 Burn After Reading Coen Bros (3/2) prev: 10,11
10 In Bruges Martin McDonaugh prev: unranked
11 The Argentine / Guerilla Peter Buchman prev:9, 6
12 Skin Helen Crawley and Anthony Fabian prev: 14,16
13 Seven Pounds Grant Nieporte prev: 11,12
14 The Young Victoria Julian Fellowes (1 nom / 1 win) prev: 12,10
15 Hamlet 2 Pam Brady & Andrew Fleming prev: 16,13
16 Synechdoche New York Charlie Kauffman (3 noms / 1 win) prev: 8,1
17 Two Lovers James Gray & Ric Menello prev: 17,14
18 Waltz With Bashir Ari Folman prev: 13,unranked
19 Lakeview Terrace David Loughery & Howard Korder prev: 20, 20
20 Crossing Over Wayne Kramer prev: 18,17

falling out: Baby Mama Michael McCullers prev: 19, * The Edge of Love Sharman Macdonald prev: 15,15 * Fireflies in the Garden Dennis Lee prev: 19, 18
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7
The Visitor
Thomas McCarthy
prev: unranked
WALL-E
 Andrew Stanton
2 nominations
prev: 7,9
Selling point: Headstart: It's one of only two or three movies with any Oscar buzz at this point. Va
Selling point: Pointed commentary on the world in which we live. But also generous, funny and easy to take.
prediction history

July: Changeling, Happy Go Lucky, Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Christina Barcelona
June: Changeling, Happy Go Lucky, Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Christina Barcelona
April: Happy Go Lucky, Milk, Rachel Getting Married, Synecdoche New York, Vicky Christina Barcelona

 

Best Adapted Screenplay - July 7th Predictions

07/07 minor adjustments and Chéri vacating to 2009

06/12/08 Two new additions to 2008 -- moving up from originally suspected 2009 releases-- Chéri and The Road shake up the adaptation race. I wouldn't bet against either (for now) even despite the considerable competition.

04/01 * nomination statistics reflect this category only
I've gone with mostly my predicted Best Picture nominees here... since that's often how it works out.

Discuss on the blog
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2
3
4
5
Doubt
 John Patrick Shanley
(adapting his own play)
1 nom / 1 win
prev: 1,1
Frost/Nixon
Peter Morgan (adapting his own play)
1 nomination
prev: 2,5
House of Lies
 (formerly "Body" of Lies -William Monahan adapting David Ignatius' novel)
1 nom / 1 win
prev: 4,4
The Road
Joe Penhall (adapting Cormac McMarthy's novel)
never nominated
prev: 4, UR
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
 Eric Roth (adapting F Scott Fitzgerald)
3 noms / 1 win
prev: 6,2
Selling point:
That Pulitzer and TONY
Selling point:
The TONY prestige + The Queen momentum
Selling point:
The Departed scribe
Selling point:
Cormac McCarthy is a genius + No Country goodwill
Selling point:
F. Scott Fitzgerald + Oscar loved writer
Contenders
8 Blindness William Monaham and Don McKellar adapting the Jose Saramago novel prev: 9,3
9 The Dark Knight Jonathan Nolan adapting DC characters prev: 13,14
10 Miracle at St Anna James McBride prev: 8,11
11 The Soloist Susannah Grant adapting Steve Lopez's articles --though I wonder if they'll sell this as "original" prev: 12,13
12 Brothers David Benioff adapting the Danish film prev: 11, 8
13 Elegy Nicholas Meyer adapting Philip Roth prev: 17,17
14 The Other Man Eyre and Charles Wood adapting Bernard Shclink's short story prev: 15,9
15 The Reader David Hare (adapting Bernard Schlink's novel) 1 nomination prev: 14,6 (moving to 09?)
16 Mamma Mia! (adapting the Broadway musical) prev: unranked
17 Grey Gardens Patricia Rozema & Michael Sucsy adapting the documentary --though I wonder if they'll sell this as "original" prev: 16,12
18 Time Traveler's Wife Jeremy Leven adapting Audrey Niffenegger prev: 20,18
19 Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist Lorene Scafaria adapting the novel by Cohn and Levithan prev: 18,19
20 The Duchess Jeffrey Hatcher adapting Amanda Foreman prev: 19,16

falling out: Nights in Rodanthe prev: 15 / Push prev: 20 * Chéri prev: 4,UR (moved to 2009) *
6
7
Revolutionary Road
Justin Haythe (adapting Richard Yates' novel)
never nominated
prev: 7,7
Defiance Frohman and Zwick (adapting Nechama Tec)
prev: 10,10
Selling point:
Titanic reunion + famous novel
Selling point:
WWII and triumph of the human spirit kind of thing
prediction history

July: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost / Nixon, House of Lies, The Road
June: Body of Lies, Chéri, Doubt, Frost / Nixon, The Road
April: Blindness, Body of Lies, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost / Nixon

 

Last Year's Race