OSCAR
RACE 2008
commentary
by Nathaniel R
Approximately
days until Oscar's High Holy Night
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Final NOMINATION Predictions 4/5. I missed Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) which is frustrating because the second I was finished watching the movie I declared him a lock in my mind. And then the precursors happened and I lost confidence. Especially with all the hoopla for Slumdog Millionaire happening.
Readers Choice Heath Ledger, The Dark KnightMy Preference Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
My Personal Ballot 2/5 similar or 3/5 if you're getting particular since I put Ledger in Lead Actor.Note: Film counts are rough totals. It can be hard to add since IMDB doesn't sort out short films, voicework, TV or documentaries and it's meant to be a total sum of their live action feature work.
| Josh
Brolin "Dan White " Milk |
Robert
Downey Jr "Kirk Lazarus " Tropic Thunder |
Phillip
Seymour Hoffman "Father Flynn" Doubt |
Heath
Ledger "The Joker" The Dark Knight |
Michael
Shannon "John Givings" Revolutionary Road |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
40
years old 27 Films 1st nomination! |
43
years old 60 Films 2nd nomination |
41
years old 40 Films 3rd nomination / 1 win |
1979-2008 18 Films 2nd nom / 1st win |
34
years old 29 Films 1st nomination! |
| Other
Awards: NBR, NYFCC |
Other
Awards: None Release: Aug 13th Box Office: $110 Company: Dreamworks Role: A method actor who doesn't drop character until he's done the DVD commentary |
Other
Awards: None Release: Dec 12th Box Office: $31 Company: Miramax Role: A priest accused of molesting a child in his congregation |
Other
Awards: Globes, Sag, LAFCA, BFCA, BAFTA, AWFJ, AAFCA, OFCS,
and 19 regional critics orgs Release: July 18th Box Office: $533 Company: Warner Bros Role: A mentally unstable super villain |
Other
Awards: Satellites Release: Dec 26th Box Office: $21 Company: Paramount Role: A mentally unstable mathematician |
How'd
They Get Nominated? |
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37%
Role: They love real life people reinterpreted for the screen by actors.
Plus: mental disturbances. 31% Performance. Very strong / subtle 15% Amazing 2007 breakthrough year. Awards momentum started long ago 7% in biopic and Best Picture nominee 5% W. 4% precursors 1% Diane Lane |
60%
Performance: committed, brave and very very funny 19% Iron Man. Super successful comeback stories are a shared Hollywood dream 11% precursor support helped clear anti-comedy bias 8% Role. Hilarious for any within the acting branch who can laugh at themselves 2% He's Robert Downey Jr |
30%
He's Philip Seymour Hoffman 25% The kind of film that wins acting nominations so long as you don't screw up 19% Performance. (Didn't screw up) 11% Role: juicy. Scenes with Meryl never hurt 9% precursors 5% Timing opened late -- competition didn't run deep this year here 1% Synecdoche |
40%
Performance: Brilliant, haunting, instantly classic 40% Grief 6% Unanimous critical and precursor support 6% Guilt. We f***ed up with Brokeback 4% Role. Showy and mental is a plus but Genre is a no-no (for the Academy) 4% Good / correct way to award extremely popular film |
50%
Role: Baity (mental!) and the type of audience surrogant that works
even if you don't like the movie, since he comments on it so harshly
/ funnily 20% Performance. 12% competition wasn't deep this year here 11% Pre release buzz 7% Familiar face finally getting a showcase. He's been busy and that helps |
Should
Win / Will Win? |
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Should and Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight though I still wish they'd already rewarded him the first time he was the best by a country mile. |
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Who
Got Robbed? |
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 This
is a list they can be proud of and in Supporting Actor (usually the
worst as far as the Academy's taste level goes) that doesn't happen
very often at all, so I shan't grumble too much. My main gripe was that
the great stage talent Bill Irwin (Rachel Getting
Married) finally got a worthy role in a movie and was t-e-r-r-i-f-i-c
in it but no awards group seemed to notice --not even the Indie Spirits
which liked the acting overall. Points for the Chicago Critics though
for citing him as a nominee. Here's my supporting
actor ballot and here's my interview
with Bill Irwin if you're still reading. |
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more info to come
