OSCAR
RACE 2008
commentary
by Nathaniel R
Approximately
days until Oscar's High Holy Night
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Final NOMINATION Predictions 4/5. I missed Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) which is frustrating because the second I was finished watching the movie I declared him a lock in my mind. And then the precursors happened and I lost confidence. Especially with all the hoopla for Slumdog Millionaire happening.
Readers Choice VOTE NOW
Final WINNER Predictions Heath Ledger The Dark Knight
My Preference Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
My Personal Ballot 2/5 similar or 3/5 if you're getting particular since I put Ledger in Lead Actor.Note: Film counts are rough totals. It can be hard to add since IMDB doesn't sort out short films, voicework, TV or documentaries and it's meant to be a total sum of their live action feature work.
| Josh
Brolin "Dan White " Milk |
Robert
Downey Jr "Kirk Lazarus " Tropic Thunder |
Phillip
Seymour Hoffman "Father Flynn" Doubt |
Heath
Ledger "The Joker" The Dark Knight |
Michael
Shannon "John Givings" Revolutionary Road |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
40
years old 27 Films 1st nomination! |
43
years old 60 Films 2nd nomination |
41
years old 40 Films 3rd nomination / 1 win |
1979-2008 18 Films 2nd nomination |
34
years old 29 Films 1st nomination! |
| Other
Awards: NBR, NYFCC |
Other
Awards: None Release: Aug 13th Box Office: $110 Company: Dreamworks Role: A method actor who doesn't drop character until he's done the DVD commentary |
Other
Awards: None Release: Dec 12th Box Office: $29 Company: Miramax Role: A priest accused of molesting a child in his congregation |
Other
Awards: Globes, Sag, LAFCA, BFCA, BAFTA, AWFJ, AAFCA, OFCS,
and 19 regional critics orgs Release: July 18th Box Office: $531 Company: Warner Bros Role: A mentally unstable super villain |
Other
Awards: Satellites Release: Dec 26th Box Office: $18 Company: Paramount Role: A mentally unstable mathematician |
How'd
They Get Nominated? |
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37%
Role: They love real life people reinterpreted for the screen by actors.
Plus: mental disturbances. 31% Performance. Very strong / subtle 15% Amazing 2007 breakthrough year. Awards momentum started long ago 7% in biopic and Best Picture nominee 5% W. 4% precursors 1% Diane Lane |
60%
Performance: committed, brave and very very funny 19% Iron Man. Super successful comeback stories are a shared Hollywood dream 11% precursor support helped clear anti-comedy bias 8% Role. Hilarious for any within the acting branch who can laugh at themselves 2% He's Robert Downey Jr |
30%
He's Philip Seymour Hoffman 25% The kind of film that wins acting nominations so long as you don't screw up 19% Performance. (Didn't screw up) 11% Role: juicy. Scenes with Meryl never hurt 9% precursors 5% Timing opened late -- competition didn't run deep this year here 1% Synecdoche |
40%
Performance: Brilliant, haunting, instantly classic 40% Grief 6% Unanimous critical and precursor support 6% Guilt. We f***ed up with Brokeback 4% Role. Showy and mental is a plus but Genre is a no-no (for the Academy) 4% Good / correct way to award extremely popular film |
50%
Role: Baity (mental!) and the type of audience surrogant that works
even if you don't like the movie, since he comments on it so harshly
/ funnily 20% Performance. 12% competition wasn't deep this year here 11% Pre release buzz 7% Familiar face finally getting a showcase. He's been busy and that helps |
Should
Win / Will Win? |
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Should and Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight though I still wish they'd already rewarded him the first time he was the best by a country mile. |
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Who
Got Robbed? |
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 This
is a list they can be proud of and in Supporting Actor (usually the
worst as far as the Academy's taste level goes) that doesn't happen
very often at all, so I shan't grumble too much. My main gripe was that
the great stage talent Bill Irwin (Rachel Getting
Married) finally got a worthy role in a movie and was t-e-r-r-i-f-i-c
in it but no awards group seemed to notice --not even the Indie Spirits
which liked the acting overall. Points for the Chicago Critics though
for citing him as a nominee. Here's my supporting
actor ballot and here's my interview
with Bill Irwin if you're still reading. |
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more info to come
