OSCAR RACE 2008
commentary by Nathaniel R

Approximately days until Oscar's High Holy Night

 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight


Final NOMINATION Predictions
4/5. I missed Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road) which is frustrating because the second I was finished watching the movie I declared him a lock in my mind. And then the precursors happened and I lost confidence. Especially with all the hoopla for Slumdog Millionaire happening.
Readers Choice Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

My Preference Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
My Personal Ballot
2/5 similar or 3/5 if you're getting particular since I put Ledger in Lead Actor.

Note: Film counts are rough totals. It can be hard to add since IMDB doesn't sort out short films, voicework, TV or documentaries and it's meant to be a total sum of their live action feature work.

discuss @ THE BLOG
 
Josh Brolin
"Dan White "
Milk

Robert Downey Jr
"Kirk Lazarus "
Tropic Thunder
Phillip Seymour Hoffman
"Father Flynn"
Doubt
Heath Ledger
"The Joker"
The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon
"John Givings"
Revolutionary Road
40 years old
27 Films
1st nomination!
43 years old
60 Films
2nd nomination
41 years old
40 Films
3rd nomination / 1 win
1979-2008
18 Films
2nd nom / 1st win
34 years old
29 Films
1st nomination!

Other Awards: NBR, NYFCC
Release: Nov 26th
Box Office:
$28
Company: Focus Features
Role: A mentally unstable politician

Other Awards: None
Release: Aug 13th
Box Office: $110
Company: Dreamworks
Role: A method actor who doesn't drop character until he's done the DVD commentary
Other Awards: None
Release: Dec 12th
Box Office: $31
Company:
Miramax
Role: A priest accused of molesting a child in his congregation
Other Awards: Globes, Sag, LAFCA, BFCA, BAFTA, AWFJ, AAFCA, OFCS, and 19 regional critics orgs
Release: July 18th
Box Office:
$533
Company: Warner Bros
Role: A mentally unstable super villain
Other Awards: Satellites
Release: Dec 26th
Box Office: $21
Company: Paramount
Role: A mentally unstable mathematician
How'd They Get Nominated?
37% Role: They love real life people reinterpreted for the screen by actors. Plus: mental disturbances.
31% Performance. Very strong / subtle
15%
Amazing 2007 breakthrough year. Awards momentum started long ago
7% in biopic and Best Picture nominee
5% W.
4% precursors
1% Diane Lane
60% Performance: committed, brave and very very funny
19% Iron Man. Super successful comeback stories are a shared Hollywood dream
11% precursor support helped clear anti-comedy bias
8% Role. Hilarious for any within the acting branch who can laugh at themselves
2% He's Robert Downey Jr
30% He's Philip Seymour Hoffman
25%
The kind of film that wins acting nominations so long as you don't screw up
19% Performance. (Didn't screw up)
11% Role: juicy. Scenes with Meryl never hurt
9% precursors
5% Timing opened late -- competition didn't run deep this year here
1% Synecdoche
40% Performance: Brilliant, haunting, instantly classic
40%
Grief
6% Unanimous critical and precursor support
6% Guilt. We f***ed up with Brokeback
4% Role. Showy and mental is a plus but Genre is a no-no (for the Academy)
4% Good / correct way to award extremely popular film
50% Role: Baity (mental!) and the type of audience surrogant that works even if you don't like the movie, since he comments on it so harshly / funnily
20% Performance.
12% competition wasn't deep this year here
11% Pre release buzz
7% Familiar face finally getting a showcase. He's been busy and that helps
Should Win / Will Win?

Should and Will Win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight though I still wish they'd already rewarded him the first time he was the best by a country mile.

Who Got Robbed?
This is a list they can be proud of and in Supporting Actor (usually the worst as far as the Academy's taste level goes) that doesn't happen very often at all, so I shan't grumble too much. My main gripe was that the great stage talent Bill Irwin (Rachel Getting Married) finally got a worthy role in a movie and was t-e-r-r-i-f-i-c in it but no awards group seemed to notice --not even the Indie Spirits which liked the acting overall. Points for the Chicago Critics though for citing him as a nominee. Here's my supporting actor ballot and here's my interview with Bill Irwin if you're still reading.

 

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