Best
Supporting Actress - July
7th Predictions |
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| 07/7/08 I see other sites are coming around to Taraji P Henson as the Benjamin possibility. I'm glad to see it having always been fairly confident (as confident as you can be a year in advance I mean). I've dropped Lange over continued concerns about whether or not Grey Gardens is seeing proper release and boosted Vera Farmiga who has been steadily rising in the movies. We'll see. discuss @ THE BLOG |
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Penelope
Cruz Vicky Christina Barcelona 1 nomination Weinstein Co -9/05 prev: 5,7 |
Kathy
Bates Revolutionary Road 3 noms / 1 win Paramount -12/26 prev: 2,4 |
Taraji
P Henson The Curious Case of Benjamin Button never nominated Paramount / Warner Bros -12/19 prev: 4,5 |
Viola
Davis Doubt never nominated Miramax - Dec prev: 1,1 |
Vera
Farmiga Nothing But the Truth never nominated TBA prev: unranked |
Why? Her performance as a lusty and crazy ex-wife won over crowds @ Cannes. Woody Allen used to mean gold here Why not? Oscar mostly ignored Match Point, Woody's last hit. The Weinstein's are handling this. |
Why? We haven't seen her in a few years in the shortlist and it's a dramatic prestige piece. Oscar loves her. Why not? Could be the Leo & Kate show only. Oscar loves her most as comic relief. |
Why? She plays Benjamin's mom, she ages from 26 to 71 and this category awards breakthrough turns. Will this do it for her? Why not? Could be the Pitt & Fincher show |
Why? This role was a powderkeg on stage. She plays the mother of the abuse victim. If Nights in Rodanthe is a hit her star might be larger by Oscar time. Why not? A small role |
Why? She's a critical darling still in search of that one role to put her over into Oscar's good graces and more public attention Why not? Is this it? Early word on her work is strong. Not that that's surprising. |
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Debra
Winger Rachel Getting Married 3 nominations SPC - TBA prev: 6,11 |
Emma
Thompson Brideshead Revisited 4 noms / 1 win (5/2 if you count other categories) Miramax -July prev:7, -- |
Miranda
Richardson The Young Victoria 2 noms TBA -TBA prev: 8,6 |
Jessica
Lange Grey Gardens 6 noms / 2 wins TBA -10/31 prev: 3,3 |
Elizabeth
Banks W. never nominated October prev: 17, UR |
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Why? Prime Oscar suspect returns (playing Anne Hathaway's estranged mother) Why not? Dramedies are tough to predict with Oscar. The film (formerly known as Dancing With Shiva) has no buzz |
Why? Prime Oscar suspect returns with a showcase role in a famous property... Why not? ...that's been done definitively before. Will people care about the new version? |
Why? This is wishful thinking as I have no idea how prominently featured she is. But we all know she can steal a movie Why not? Distributor? Release date? How's the film? |
Why? Hasn't had real acclaim in years but she was still affecting in Big Fish (remember that?) and the role of Big Edie is a strong one and a co-lead Why not? Distributor? Is the film any good? |
Why? AMPAS does love a biopic role and Laura Bush is ripe for subversion. Plus: 2008 is a big year for her. That helps. Why not? concerns over the project in general |
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Other
Possibilities falling out: Carice van Houten (never nom'ed) Valkyrie prev rank: 25 -moved to 2009 / Evan Rachel Wood (never nom'ed) Life Before Her Eyes prev: 20 / Dianne Wiest (3 noms / 2 wins) Synecdoche New York prev: 22 / Zhang Ziyi Mei Lanfang prev: 24 / Michelle Williams (1 nomination) Synecdoche New York prev: 14, Kathy Bates Chéri ( 3 noms / 1 win) prev: 19, -- (moved to 2009) * Carice van Houten Body of Lies prev: 24, 13 |
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Charlize
Theron The Road 2 noms / 1 win Dimension-11/26 prev: 9,-- |
Rachel
Weisz (1 nom/1 win) The Brothers Bloom October prev: 10,12 |
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Why? Oscar likes her and the role is a true gutpunch. Why not? It's also (if the movie follows the book) a glorified cameo... so she'll need to be explosive with the drama |
Why? She plays an eccentric heiress. If the film is good and accessible... Why not? She sometimes overdoes quirky characters (see: The Shape of Things) |
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prediction
history |
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July:
Bates, Cruz,
Davis, Farmiga, Henson previous
notes: 04/01/08 Supporting is so difficult to see in advance. But I've gone with two possible co-leads (Lange & Winslet... but Oscar doesn't mind the category fraud) in presumably baity films and three women who might be highlights of their respective films (Davis, Bates and Henson). But again. This category ~ any thing could happen. So much depends on the lead performances and the films themselves when it comes to getting the supporting roles noticed with Oscar.
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