OSCAR RACE 2007
commentary by Nathaniel R

days until Oscar Nomination are announced

 

Please note: nomination statistics reflect the category being discussed only.
Some crew members work in multiple field. Just as writer-director is a common
hyphenate so isproduction designer-costumer, etcetera
costume design has its own page

discuss @ THE BLOG

Best Cinematography - July 10th Predictions

07/10 minor changes

04/01/08 Rankings are of course semi-arbitrary this early and reflect mostly the combo of the DP's Oscar history and the general visual scope of the project. Oscar likes BIG. I almost included Harris Savides (Milk) as wishful thinking because really now.... he still has not been nominated?
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5
Revolutionary Road
Roger Deakins
7 noms
prev: 1,1
Australia
Mandy Walker
never nom'ed
prev: 2,4
The Dark Knight
 Wally Pfister
2 nominations
prev: 3,3
Defiance
 Eduardo Serra
1 nom / 1 win
prev: 4,5
The Road
Javier Aguirresarobe
never nominated
prev: 5,UR
selling points:
Deakins himself, period finery, glamourous stars
selling points:
the outback, epic scale, glamourous stars
selling points:
this franchise, the Nolan/Pfister track record
selling points:
forests and light, WW II
selling points:
stark vistas and lighting design will be crucial to its success
 

likely competitors
6 César Charlone (1 nomination) -Blindness prev: 10,2
7 Claudio Miranda (never nominated)- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button prev: 10,9
8 Harris Savides (never nominated) -Milk prev: 6,10
9 Matthew Libatique (never nominated) -Miracle at St Anna prev: 7,20
10 Dean Semmler (1 nom / 1 win) Appaloosa prev: 12, 5
11 Tom Stern (never nominated)-Changeling prev: 11, 12
12 Javier Aguirresarobe (never nominated) -Vicky Christina Barcelona prev: 17, 25

other possibilities
13 Chris Menges (3 noms / 2 wins) -The Reader prev: 13, 7 moving to 2009?
14 Alexander Witt (never nominated) -House of Lies prev: 14, 11
15 Roger Deakins (7 nominations) -Doubt prev: 15, 8
16 Seamus McGarvey (1 nomination) -The Soloist prev: 16, 16
17 Salvator Totino (never nominated) - Frost/Nixon prev: 19, 17
18 Yue Lu (1 nomination) -Red Cliff prev: 18, 14
19 unknown (unknown) - Mei Lanfang prev: 22, 21
20 Emmanuel Lubezki (4 noms) -Burn After Reading prev: 20, 24
21 Hagen Bogdanski (never nominated) -Young Victoria prev: 21, 22
22 Steven Soderbergh as "Peter Andrews" -The Argentine and Guerilla prev: 25, 19
23 Janusz Kaminksi (4 noms / 2 wins) -Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull prev:23, 13
24 Phedon PapaMichael (never nominated) W. prev: 24, UR
25 Haris Zambarloukis (never nominated) Mamma Mia! prev: UR

falling out: Xavier Pérez Grobert (never nominated) -City of Ember prev: 15 / Steve Yedlin (never nominated) -The Brothers Bloom prev: 18 / Mike Eley (never nominated) -Grey Gardens prev: 23 Darius Khondji (1 nomination) -Chéri prev:8, UR (moved to 2009)
prediction history

July: Australia, Defiance, The Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road, The Road
June: Australia, Defiance, The Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road, The Road
April: Appaloosa, Australia, Blindness, The Dark Knight, Revolutionary Road

 

Best Art Direction - July 10th Predictions

07/10 minor rank adjustments
06/12 Nunneries, Australia, Gotham City and Italian villages in WW II

04/01 simply guesswork. Last year I scored an unheard of 4/5 correct in regards to the actual nominationsat this early bird point in the year. I don't know how I did it. I don't expect to be so lucky / genius this time.
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3
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Australia
 Catherine Martin
2 noms / 1 win
prev: 1,1
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Donald Graham Burt
never nominated
prev: 2,3
Miracle at St. Anna
Tonino Zera
never nominated
prev: 5,22
The Dark Knight
Nathan Crowley
1 nomination
prev: 4,8