falling out or moved to 2009: Liam Neeson The Other Man prev: 19,16,13,13,13,11 * Robert Downey Jr Iron Man prev: 20,20,19,19,22, -- * Martin Landau Lovely Still prev: 18, 19, --,--,--,-- * Viggo Mortensen The Road prev: prev: 8,9,10, 9, 4, -- * Robert Downey Jr. The Soloist prev: 10,11, unranked * Eric Bana The Time Traveler's Wife prev: 22, 21,22 Mark Ruffalo Blindness prev: 21, 17,7 Samuel L Jackson Lakeview Terrace prev: 21 Sam Rockwell Choke prev: 24 Joaquin Phoenix Two Lovers prev: 25, Cillian Murphy Hippie Hippie Shake prev: 20,19, Cillian Murphy The Edge of Love prev: 19,14 * Richard Gere Nights in Rodanthe prev: 25,25,24,23 * Leon Lai Mei Lanfang prev: 24,23, --, 20 (release plans?) * Ben Kingsley Elegy prev: 21,18,18,18 (strangely ignored) * Ralph Fiennes The Reader prev: 20,16,25,8 * Jake Gyllenhaal Brothers prev: 17,17,14,17 * Derek Luke Miracle at St. Anna prev: 22,20,15, ur * Jamie Foxx The Soloist (listed in supporting now) prev: 24, ur, 16,14,11,13 * Tobey Maguire Brothers (moved to 2009) 23, unranked * Heath Ledger The Dark Knight (listed in supporting) prev: 21,8, --,--,-- * Leonardo DiCaprio Body of Lies [] prev: 22,18,15,16,15 * Phillip Seymour Hoffman Doubt (planning a fraudulent "supporting" campaign) prev: 7,12,12,8,5 * Dev Patel Slumdog Millionaire [] prev: 17,unranked * Will Smith Seven Pounds (Columbia Dec) 16,14,9,11,10,10 Ralph Fiennes "Michael"The Reader2 nominationsWeinstein Co- DEC prev: 10, --, --, 20,16,25,8 Phillip Seymour Hoffman Synecdoche New York [] prev: 15, 15,17,18,--,24,23,16 Will Smith Seven Pounds 2 noms prev: --, 16,14,9,11,10,10 Benicio Del Toro The Argentine / Guerilla 2 noms / 1 win IFC - Dec prev: 14,14,8,5,5,3,3 Daniel Craig Defiance [Paramount, Dec] prev: 12,15,12,6,6,7,9 Hugh Jackman "The Drover" Australia never nominated Fox-NOV prev: 8, 8,9,10,11, 10,12,12

Nov 22nd DiCaprio, Jenkins, Langella, Penn, Rourke
Oct 27th: Eastwood, Langella, Penn, Pitt, Rourke
Oct 13th: DiCaprio, Eastwood, Langella, Penn, Rourke
Sept: DiCaprio, Jenkins, Langella, Penn, Rourke
August: Del Toro, DiCaprio, Langella, Penn, Pitt
July: Del Toro, DiCaprio, Langella, Penn, Pitt
June: Del Toro, Langella, Mortensen, Penn, Pitt
April: Del Toro, Hoffman, Langella, Penn, Pitt

Dec 14th. There are only 7 possibilities and there's so little happening beyond that that my guess as to who will be 8 through 10th rank is based on nothing more than suspicions. Any combo of three would work there basically because the top 7 are hogging ALL the attention. Penn, Rourke and Langella are locked and loaded with the type of roles or performances that are total Oscar turn-ons (biopics, tears, comebacks, etcetera) and they haven't stumbled at all in the precursor run-up.

That leaves 2 spots open. You can make a solid case for any combo of 2 of the 4 guys who might show up there. Pitt is in the possible Oscar frontrunner and it's been a long time since his one and only nomination both of which might helpa lot. But he's also got kind of a blank role compared to his competition. DiCaprio is well liked by Oscar and he offers up meaty dramatics but not everyone loves the film. Missing the BFCA (a highly predictive precursor for better and worse), even if they did get the screeners late, suggests there might be some deflation as pre-release hype converts to actual buzz. Maybe it's wishful thinking but I still believe they'll be calling Richard Jenkins name. The performance has been remembered all year.

The big obstacle for all three of them is the continued need for the media (and presumably the Academy) to replay the familiar 'We Love Eastwood' narrative. The New York Times, among other media outlets, is laying it on thick promoting his candidacy. That'll probably cost one of his less laureled competitors (Pitt, DiCaprio, Jenkins)... none of whom have even one Oscar to Clint's four golden boys. But that's the way it goes.

December 6th These predictions are still solid barring a possible big move from Clint Eastwood who took the NBR.. but this week NYFCC, LAFCA, BFCA and the GLOBES all announce so we'll hold off on revisions of this chart until then. Next update: December 13th

Nov 22nd I would be extremely surprised to see DiCaprio, Rourke or Penn passed over. But here's the best part: They're all terrific in their movies. That leaves two spots open. I see Richard Jenkins making it (the media is still pushing him -note that Entertainer of the Year citation in EW). People really loved that film. And it's hard for Oscar voters to vote against biopic turns, no matter what they're up against so I'm guessing Langella pulls it out, toppling the dreams of bigger stars.

It's a three-way race for the win (Leo vs. Mickey vs. Sean) unless Clint Eastwood is nominated in which case, it's probably all over. On account of he needs a fifth Oscar apparently.

Oct 27th We've been living with some of these possibilities for so long that it's starting to seem locked up. Only it's not. It's not locked up at all. In one way or another there still seems to be ten men that can make a solid run for those five coveted positions and with 70% of them waiting until December to bow, it couldget very volatile in the next two months. The only way this race locks up quickly is if the early precursors monotously copy each other or some of the pictures outright tank. Either of those things could easily happen. Critics awards and precursors have been getting more monolithic over the years. But it'd be a nice to see a real bloody too-many-competitors race again. Will we get that excitement this year or will the NBR, BFCA, Globes, SAG and Critics Awards all line up to anoint an obvious Oscar winner and four obvious "it's a pleasure to be nominated" runners up.

I hope it stays volatile ...and it could. The campaign trail is not well trodden yet, audiences favorites haven't yet emerged and we only have a rough sketch idea of how the mainstream media will react. They don't usually turn against any big stars who might have a chance at the prize but a warm embrace counts for quite a lot and polite regard can be a death sentence. We shall see.