OSCAR RACE 2007
commentary
by Nathaniel
R
days until OSCAR NIGHT!
Oscar Predictions
click title of category for more info
nom' predix stats -majors (top 8 categories) ~ 34/40 correct
nom' predix stats -all categories: 76 /103 correct
perfect nom' predix score! supporting actors and actresses and best cinematography
lousy nom' predix guesswork makeup, original song, sound mixing
I confess: this has been a somewhat haphazard year of Oscar coverage for me. I was really raring to go at nomination time but then... where did the time and obsessiveness go? In an odd turn of events I think the general quality of the shortlists (so little to be infuriated by this year) prevented me from becoming too enthralled with the race for the gold itself. In several cases I'd be happy with more than one winner. It's hard to root for anyone in particular when you love a lot of them and when you can't even decide who you would vote for yourself (Viggo vs. Daniel / No Country vs. There Will Be Blood --both are toss-ups)
Nevertheless, predict I must. In some cases I'm more confident about who will lose (Cate Blanchett --seriously, with only the Globe win why are so many people confident that she can win?) than who will win (Dee or Swinton? I think it's a nail biter). But then again, I'm better at the nomination guessing game than the wins. My true skill is in the year in advance and the December/January timeframe. Once we get to the red carpet and the Kodak theater, a year's worth of ideas, awardage, statistics and my own feelings about the films often starts to mess with my brainwaves.
There's a lot of scenarios to consider and rebuttals for all. Yes, No Country could sweep. No it can't. It's not a typical enough Oscar film. Yes, Juno could surprise scurrying inbetween the heaviest of dramas. It peaked during balloting. No, too many people think it's overrated. Yes, there could be a few somethings for everyone (a la 2005). No, No Country will hog statuettes even without a clean sweep. Etcetera...
So here we go...
THE FINAL PREDICTIONS
bolded in redpssst. remember I'll be live blogging on the night of the event if you aren't attending a party, if you're living somewhere that isn't televising it live, or if you just want to read along and have a comment party with other TFE readers and Oscar lovers.
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PIC accuracy
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DIR accuracy
of my nom predictions: |
ACTOR accuracy
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ACTRESS
accuracy
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It
seems clear that four fine nominated pictures won't be able to stop
what's coming. |
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Affleck accuracy
of my nom predictions: |
Blanchett accuracy
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Juno accuracy
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Atonement accuracy
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It's
a given that Bardem and the Juno screenplay will win so
there's no point in discussing it or pretending there are any rivals
for the statue. But Supporting Actress and Screenplay are more confusing. Whichever way Supporting Actress goes, by far the most confusing of the big eight categories, no one should claim surprise. The precursors could never agree. That's always a welcome and fun development, as it keeps a competition competitive if you'll forgive the redundancy. I'm guessing Swinton not because I love the performance most (but I do by a lot), but because Michael Clayton needs to win something and in a competitive field, why wouldn't a picture that needs a win give her a boost? That said I think Ruby Dee is just as likely but you have to choose someone to guess with. In tight races like this one, I always long for a tie --just so that Barbra Streisand and Katharine Hepburn don't hold that particular record all to themselves for all eternity. |
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accuracy
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Art
Direction accuracy
of my nom predictions: |
Across
the Universe accuracy
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Editing accuracy
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| The cinematography Oscar has long eluded Roger Deakins (No Country AND Jesse James) and with a best picture frontrunner he could easily win. But I'm going to guess that Robert Elswit (TWWB) edges him out. If the voters are really pissed that Diving Bell didn't make Best Picture I could even see them giving yet another Oscar to Janusz Kaminsky, too. That category is probably the nights best in terms of across-the-board quality. I'm rooting for Jack Fisk to pull off the win in Art Direction for There Will Be Blood but I'm not at all certain he will since he's up against showier (Sweeney Todd) and prettier (Atonement). We'll see. I'm crossing my fingers. Costume Design seems an easy get for Atonement. The green dress seals the deal and they've probably rewarded Atwood (Sweeney Todd) enough in the past. Editing is where I'm guessing they'll draw the line at four statues being too many for the Coen Bros to carry home personally. Let's say Bourne Ultimatum there. |
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3:10
to Yuma accuracy
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FOREIGN accuracy
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SOUND
MIXING accuracy
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SONG accuracy
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Atonement's typewriter infused score is too memorable to pass up I think. And Counterfeiters has maintained foreign buzz well. If there's any justice in the world, "Falling Slowly" is a lock to win best song for the otherwise shunned Once (which deserved much better as one of the year's very best) but the Academy has proved tone deaf before. Sound Mixing is improbably a very exciting race. The sound team of the Transformers (Russell and O'Connor) have been up a bajillion times and always lost. Did the media coverage (far more than usual for the sound race) finally convince Oscar to give them a career tribute? My guess is it could go any which of three ways: Bourne Ultimatum, Transformers, or No Country. I'm going to guess that the drought will finally end (just barely) for the Susan Lucci of the Oscars. |
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accuracy
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La
Vie En Rose accuracy
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Bourne
Ultimatum accuracy
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ANIMATED
accuracy
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Giant
F***ing Robots can't lose in visual effects. Piaf can't lose in makeup
(can she? I guess it's a shock that La Vie En Rose was nominated to
begin with since the academy usually likes to pretend that beautiful
actress transforming their hairlines and skin tone and everything
is the power of the actress herself), and the rat can't lose in the
cartoon race. The only toss up here is the other sound category. I'm
guessing Bourne Ultimatum just because I doubting that No Country
will hold sweeping power love from enough AMPAS members. |
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I
Met the Walrus accuracy
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At
Night accuracy
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Freeheld accuracy
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Documentary
Feature accuracy
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TBA on these last four... I'll finish those predictions shortly And that's the end! (your thoughts welcome @ the blog) May all of your favorites win on Oscar night... unless your favorite is not Julie Christie! Peace,
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previously
Golden
Globe winners and blog
discussion
new my top ten list and the
film bitch awards have begun
"IT'S A GUSHER" -the year in review
new
podcast (Marisa Tomei & SAG Nomination
Discussion)
worst of the year & golden
globes
